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2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究
任智源①②1,2,3,3, 原野①②③1,2,3,3, 赵联大①②③1,2,3,3, 王培涛①②③1,2,3,3, 侯京明①②③1,2,3,3, 徐志国①②③1,2,3,3, 高义①②③1,2,3,3, 李宏伟①②1,2,3,3, 闪迪①②1,2,3,3, 王君成①②1,2,3,3, 范婷婷①②1,2,3,3, 王宗辰①②1,2,3,3
1.① 国家海洋环境预报中心;2.② 国家海洋局海啸预警中心;3.③ 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室
摘要:
本文主要回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)针对2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况,并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响过程。2016年全年我们总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期,没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸,以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律,模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件,本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响;针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸,探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。
关键词:  地震海啸  海啸预警  数值模拟  浅水波方程  Boussinesq方程
DOI:10.11759/hykx20170214002
分类号:O352
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1401500), 国家海洋公益性行业科研专项项目(201405026), 海洋工程国家重点实验室开放课题(1604), 和留学人员科技活动项目择优资助.
Monitoring, early warning and numerical study of global tsunami in 2016
REN ZHYUAN1,2,3, YUAN YE1,2,3, ZHAO LIANDA1,2,3, WANG PEITAO1,2,3, HOU JINGMING1,2,3, XU ZHIGUO1,2,3, GAO YI1,2,3, LI HONGWEI1,2,3, SHAN DI1,2,3, WANG JUNCHENG1,2,3, FAN TINGTING1,2,3, WANG ZONGCHEN1,2,3
1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center;2State Oceanic Administration Tsunami Warning Center;3Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
Abstract:
This study has reviewed global earthquake tsunami warning in 2016, monitored by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (National Tsunami Warning Center, SOA), and introduced the five typical tsunami events based tsunami generation and propagation model. We have response 45 submarine earthquakes, which are above magnitude of 6.5 (Mw>5.5 in coastal region of China), and released 81 times of earthquake information in 2016. No tsunami affected China Coasts. This study has focused on Sumatra tsunami of Mw 7.8, Ecuador tsunami of Mw 7.8, New Zealand tsunami of Mw 7.1 and 7.8, and Solomon tsunami of Mw 7.8, and presented maximum tsunami wave distribution and wave fluctuation based on refined numerical results and measurements. The numerical results could reproduce the tsunami scenarios, and match well with measured data. Comparison between uniform fault model and finite fault model with multi-plate for Ecuador tsunami of Mw 7.8 is presented. The dispersion effect on tsunami propagation is discussed based on Boussinesq equation for New Zealand tsunami of Mw 7.1.
Key words:  Tsunami  Tsunami early warning  numerical modeling  shallow water equation  Boussinesq equation
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