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20世纪50年代以来登陆中国热带气旋的变化特征分析
张春艳1, 刘昭华1, 王晓利2, 侯西勇2
1.江西理工大学;2.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
摘要:
基于1951-2017年西北太平洋热带气旋路径资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析以及周期分析等方法对近67年来登陆中国热带气旋的个数、频次、强度以及登陆位置等热带气旋活动特征进行深入分析,结果表明:(1) 近67年登陆中国热带气旋的个数和频次均呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别为0.03个/10a和0.08次/10a,但变化趋势均不显著,未来一段时期热带气旋登陆个数、频次将呈缓慢增加趋势。(2) 6-10月是热带气旋发生和登陆的高频期,其中,8月份热带气旋的发生次数和登陆中国的次数均最多。(3) 历年最低中心气压、平均中心气压均呈增加趋势,且最低中心气压通过了M-K显著性检验;热带气旋登陆强度总体呈减弱趋势,且未来一段时期将继续呈减弱趋势,但高强度热带气旋呈显著增加趋势。(4) 广东、台湾、海南、福建和浙江是热带气旋的主要登陆地;热带气旋的登陆位置呈向东、向北偏移趋势,且未来时期该偏移趋势仍将持续。
关键词:  热带气旋  个数  频次  强度  登陆位置
DOI:10.11759/hykx20190424003
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院战略性先导科技专项;国家自然科学基金国际合作项目;中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所自主部署项目资助
Variation of landfalling tropical cyclone in China since 1950s
Zhangchunyan1, Liuzhaohua1, Wangxiaoli2, Houxiyong2
1.Jiangxi University of Science and Technology;2.Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract:
Based on the track data of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific from 1951 to 2017, the characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) in China in the last 67 years, such as number, frequency, intensity and landfalling location, were statistically analyzed by means of trend analysis, run-test analysis and periodic analysis. The results show that there was a slight decline of the number and frequency of landfalling TC from 1951 to 2017, the dropping magnitude were 0.03/10a and 0.08/10a respectively, however, the decrease trend was not significant in the test of M-K significance. In the future, the number of landfalling TC will increase slowly. The most frequent period of landfalling TC was from June to October, especially in August. The lowest central pressure and the mean central pressure all showed an increasing trend in the past years, and the lowest central pressure passed the M-K significance test, and the landfalling intensity of tropical cyclones generally showed a decreasing trend, and it would continue to show a decreasing trend in the coming period, However, the higher intensity tropical cyclone shows a significant increasing trend. The landfalling place of landfalling TC were mainly in Guangdong, Taiwan, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang. The landfalling location of TC display a trend of eastward and northward shift, and the tendency will continue in the future.
Key words:  Tropical cyclone  Number  Frequency  Intensity  Landfalling location
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