| 摘要: |
| 剑鱼(Xiphias gladius)属于大洋性中上层高度洄游性鱼种,是远洋渔业重要的目标渔获物和兼捕种类,具有较高经济价值。本文在北太平洋金枪鱼与类金枪鱼国际科学委员会(ISC)对剑鱼资源评估结果基础上,使用1951年到2018年渔获量数据,构造操作模型模拟北太平洋中西部剑鱼的种群动态和渔业动态,对9种备选管理策略(DD, DD4010, CC1, SBT1, GB_slope, ICI, ICI2, SPmod, MCD)的管理效果进行量化分析,并对短期和长期产量进行预测。通过对各先验参数时间序列分布及各管理策略的权衡,使用Kobe图表达实施管理策略前后剑鱼资源状况的变化,最终确定ICI为最佳的管理策略。对9种管理策略其中4种输出型管理策略(MCD, ICI, ICI2, SPmod)进行总可捕量(TAC)计算,分别拟合中国台湾CPUE序列和日本CPUE序列,最终得到ICI管理策略对未来50年TAC控制量及50%置信区间10404.48(6678.51-18743.22)t。对最终所选择的ICI管理策略进行敏感性测试,结果表明其对渔获量和丰度指数较为敏感。 |
| 关键词: 剑鱼 管理策略评价 权衡 模拟测试 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20210416001 |
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| Management Strategy Evaluation of Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) in the Western and Central North Pacific Ocean |
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Dai Xiaojie, Liu Yu, Xia Meng
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College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University
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| Abstract: |
| As a highly migratory fish species, swordfish (Xiphias gladius) is an important part of the Western and Central North Pacific Ocean fish stock with high economic value. Based on stock assessment result of International Scientific Committee for Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean (ISC) with catch data from 1952 to 2018, we built up Operating models in which stock dynamics of swordfish in Western and Central North Pacific Ocean was defined. Nine alternative Management Procedures (DD, DD4010, CC1, SBT1, GB_slope, ICI, ICI2, SPmod and MCD) were chosen to be tested in our simulation circulation with 48 simulations for 50 years projection of yield. Through the priors of the time series and trade-offs on management procedures, the impact on stock status with the implementation of management procedures was intuitively represented by generating Kobe plots and ICI was finally determinded as the best management strategy. Then we caculated TAC using two time series abundance index data from Chinese Taipei and Japan. TAC results were calculated under the implementation of 4 output-control Management Procedures (MCD, ICI, ICI2 and SPmod). TAC results of ICI is 10404.48(6678.51-18743.22)with 50% confidence interval, Afterwards, we conducted sensitivity analysis on each parameter within ICI, result showed that it is sensitive to catch and abundance index data. |
| Key words: swordfish management strategy evaluation trade-off simulation test |