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全球变暖背景下本世纪末中国南海台风特征演变分析
王芳, 杨波, 孙健, 江文胜
中国海洋大学
摘要:
本文针对全球变暖的情景预估了中国南海台风特征的长期演变趋势。基于一个全球气候集合模式的模拟结果,通过对比1990-2010年历史气候条件下和2080-2100年未来气候条件下的集合模式计算资料筛选出的南海台风信息特征的差异,对本世纪末我国南海台风的频数、强度、轨迹以及登陆等特征演变趋势进行了预估分析。结果表明,在全球气候变暖背景下,本世纪末我国南海台风频数将有减少趋势,强台风发生概率有增加的趋势;南海台风轨迹预计将向西偏移,登陆位置也将向西偏移,并且整体登陆台风占比增加;预计本世纪末中南半岛和广西省登陆台风占比将增多。
关键词:  全球气候变化  南海台风  统计分析
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合(U20A2099)
Analysis on the evolution of typhoon characteristics in the South China Sea at the end of this century under the background of global warming
WANG FANG, YANG BO, SUN JIAN, JIANG WEN SHENG
Ocean University of China
Abstract:
This study evaluates the long-term evolution of typhoon characteristics in the South China Sea caused by climate change. Based on the numerical results of an atmospheric global climate model developed by the Japan Meteorological Research Institute, the evolution trend of the frequency, intensity, trajectory and landing information of typhoons in the South China Sea at the end of this century is analyzed by comparing the d4PDF data under the historic climate conditions from 1990 to 2010 and that under the future conditions from 2080 to 2100. The study results indicate that under the background of global warming, the frequency of typhoons will decrease significantly while the probability of strong typhoons will increase. The trajectories of typhoons in the South China Sea are expected to shift westward, and the landing position will also shift westward, with overall proportion of landfall typhoons increasing. It is expected that the proportion of landfall typhoons in the Indo-China Peninsula and Guangxi Province will increase by the end of this century.
Key words:  Global climate change  the South China Sea typhoon  Statistical analysis
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