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北印度洋风暴潮特征及其对气候信号的响应研究
谢建斌,万纬祺,冯兴如,尹宝树,刘亚豪
中国科学院海洋研究所
摘要:
北印度洋是我国“海上丝绸之路”的重要通道,其每年热带气旋活动引起的风暴潮等严重威胁着船舶航行安全和沿岸国家人民生命财产安全。分析研究北印度洋风暴潮的特征,对我国经济发展及北印度洋沿岸国家防灾减灾具有重要的现实意义。本研究利用美国联合预警中心(The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC)公布的1950-2020年热带气旋资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA)公布的1950-2020年热带气旋资料与1950-2020年的Ni?o3.4指数、夏威夷大学海平面中心(University Of Hawaii Sea Level Center, UHSLC)公布的北印度洋每小时的水位数据进行分析,结果表明:(1)北印度洋大于1m的风暴潮主要分布在孟加拉湾北部,少量分布在孟加拉湾其他区域与阿拉伯海。(2)孟加拉湾北部区域的年际最大热带风暴潮(Annual Maximum Tropical cyclone Storm Surge, AMTSS)与当月Ni?o3.4指数、SOI指数相关性较高、受ENSO的影响明显。(3)北印度洋AMTSS月际分布呈现双峰分布,与热带气旋(Tropical cyclone,TC)的月际分布基本一致(4)La Ni?a期间影响孟加拉湾北部的热带气旋在数量与强度方面均超过El Ni?o期间影响孟加拉湾的热带气旋,是La Ni?a期间风暴潮极值大于El Ni?o期间风暴潮极值的重要原因。本研究表明,AMTSS对El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)信号的响应可能为AMTSS提供了潜在的可预测性,这对早期预警和减少风暴潮灾害具有重要意义。
关键词:  热带气旋  风暴潮  ENSO
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20211200342
分类号:
基金项目:
CHARACTERISTICS OF STORM SURGE IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND ITS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE SIGNALS
XIE Jian-Bin1, WAN Wei-Qi1, FENG Xing-Ru1, YIN Bao-Shu1, LIU Ya-Hao2,1
1.Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Science;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract:
The Northern Indian Ocean is an important passage of China''s "Maritime Silk Road". The annual storm surge caused by tropical cyclones is a serious threat to the safety of navigation of ships and people''s lives and property in coastal countries. In this study, tropical cyclone data from 1950 to 2020 published by the United States Joint Warning Center (JTWC), tropical cyclone data from 1950 to 2020 published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Nino3.4 index from 1950 to 2020, and North sea Level data published by the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) were used. The analysis of hourly water level data in the Indian Ocean shows that :(1) the storm surge of more than 1m in the northern Indian Ocean is mainly distributed in the northern part of the bay of Bengal, and a small amount is distributed in other parts of the bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea.(2) The maximum storm surge (AMTSS) in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal has a high correlation with Nino3.4 index and SOI index, and is obviously influenced by ENSO.(3) The monthly distribution of AMTSS in the northern Indian Ocean shows a bimodal distribution, which is basically consistent with the monthly distribution of tropical cyclones (TC). (4) The number and intensity of tropical cyclones affecting the northern Bay of Bengal during La Ni?a are higher than those affecting the Bay of Bengal during El Ni?o. It is an important reason that the extreme value of storm surge during La Ni?a is greater than that during El Ni?o. This study suggests that AMTSS response to ENSO signals may provide potential predictability for AMTSS, which is important for early warning and storm surge mitigation.
Key words:  tropical cyclone  storm surge  ENSO
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