| 摘要: |
| 根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为σ=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。 |
| 关键词: 鱼情预报 深度平均盐度 试报 预报时效 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:山东省科学技术委员会资助 |
附件 |
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| A STUDY ON THE PREDICTION METHOD OF THE BOTTOM SALINITY IN THE BOHAI AND YELLOW SEAS |
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Wang Zongshan, Xu Bochang, Sun Weiyang, Zou Emei, Li Fanhua
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First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Qingdao 266003
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| Abstract: |
| Under conditions of known estuarine runoff an difference between the precipitation and evaporation, the depth-averaged salinity distribution is obtained by solving the closed equation system consisting of two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations and a depth-averaged salinity diffusion equation. The two-dimensional forecast of the bottom salinity is then made by using the empirical relationships between the bottom salinity and depth-averaged salinity, water depth and time(.month). In order to verify the reliabllity of the trial prediction, the calculated results of the bottom salinity in the Bohai and Yellow seas (July 11 of 1979. The period of validity was about 3 days) were compared with observed data (July 4 - 14 of 1979, at 104 stations west of 124.5° E) obtained from a simultaneous hydrographic survey. The comparison showed that the correlation coefficient (R) between the trial prediction and observations was 0.96 and the root-meansquare error (σ) was 0.26. The stations where the absolute errors were less than 0.2 and 0.3 accounted for 63.5% and 77.0%, respectively, and total mean absolute error was 0.19. Therefore, the results of the trial prediction are satisfactory. |
| Key words: Fishery prediction, Depth-averaged salinity, Trial prediction, Period of validity |
