引用本文:	黄奕华,楚建华,齐雨藻.南海大鹏湾盐田海域骨条藻数量的多元分析.海洋与湖沼,1997,28(2):121-127.

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南海大鹏湾盐田海域骨条藻数量的多元分析
黄奕华, 楚建华, 齐雨藻
暨南大学水生生物研究所广州 510632

摘要:

1990年及1991年3月30日-5月30日，在南海大鹏湾盐田海域设点测定骨条藻数量及各环境要素，以逐步回归、主成分分析及判别分析的方法，分析该海区骨条藻数量与环境因子的关系。结果表明，骨条藻数量与环境因子中的DO，Chl-c，Si(OH)₄，PO₄，N的关系密切；1990年4，5月与1991年4，5月骨条藻数量差异与该期间环境因子值差异显著有关;初步提出用三维主成分分析图及判别分析方程作为盐田海域骨条藻赤潮预报的方法。

关键词: 大鹏湾骨条藻逐步回归主成分分析判别分析

DOI：

分类号:

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目，9389008号

附件

MULTIVARIABLE ANALYSIS OF SKELETONEMA COSTATUM QUANTITY IN YANTIAN, DAPENG BAY, THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Huang Yihua, Chu Jianhua, Qi Yuzao

Institute of Hydrobiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632

Abstract:

Skeletonema costatunf's quantity and environmental factors were measured in Yantian Dapeng Bay during Mar. 30th to May 30th in 1990 and 1991, respectively. The relation between them in the Yantian sea area was studied by multivariable statistical analysis, stepwise regression analysis, principal component analysis and discriminant analysis. The following stepwise regression equations were obtained.

Stepwise regression equations of S. costatum's quantity to environmental factors in 1990:

Y=940.90 - 130.02X_DO+6.96X_Chl-c-4.94X_NO₃+0.13X_{Si(OH) ₄}, n=60, R=0.382^*

Stepwise regression equation of S. costatunf's quantity to environmental factors in 1991:

Y=1415.67+33.77X_DO-8.07X_Chl-c+5.73X_PO₄-0.17X_NO₃-0.06X_{Si(OH) ₄}-4.98X_Mn, n=40, R=0.697^**

Stepwise regression equation of S. costatunf's quantity to environmental factors in 1990, 1991:

Y=809.92-11.75X_T-82.10X_DO+9.25X_Chl-c-10.61X_NO₂+0.14X_{Si(OH) ₄}, n=100, R=0.36^*

Stepwise regression equation of S. costatunf's quantity to environmental factors in 1990, 1991 (when the number of S. costatunf more than 8×10⁸ cell/m³):

Y=-16289.21+2271.94X_DO-109.60X_Chl-c+254.35X_PO₄-5.20X_Si(OH)₄-34.63X_Fe, n=7, R=0.999^** (* Significant at 0.05 level, ** Significant at 0.01 level)

The results show that, the quantity of S. costatum was highly correlated with the DO, Chl-c, Si(OH) ₄, PO₄, N concentrations. The difference between S. costatunf's quantity obtained from Apr. to May in 1990 and 1991 was closely connected with the significant differences of their environmental factors in those two periods of time. Two tentative predictive models of S. costatunf's blooms in these sea area waters were suggested by using three dimensional principal components map and discriminantal equation.

Key words: Dapeng Bay, Skeletonema costatum, Stepwise regression, Principal component analysis, Discriminant analysis