| 引用本文: | 方国洪,王 凯,郭丰义,魏泽勋,范文静,张冬生,毕家胜.近30 年渤海水文和气象状况的长期变化及其相互关系.海洋与湖沼,2002,33(5):515-525. |
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| 近30 年渤海水文和气象状况的长期变化及其相互关系 |
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方国洪1, 王 凯1, 郭丰义2, 魏泽勋1, 范文静2, 张冬生2, 毕家胜2
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1.中国科学院海洋研究所;2.国家海洋信息中心
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| 摘要: |
| 利用线性回归方法对渤海和北黄海西部沿岸7 个海洋站1965-1997 年实测海洋表层水温和盐度及地面气温和降水等4 个水文气象要素的长期变化趋势作了分析, 得出渤海在这32 年期间海表温度年变率为0.015℃/a, 由此推算得出32 年升高0.48℃; 海表盐度年变率为0.042/a, 32 年升高1.34; 气温年变率为0.034℃/a, 32 年升高1.09℃; 降水年变率为-2.73mm/a, 32 年减少87mm。这4 个要素之间及其与厄尔尼诺指数之间的超前/滞后线性回归分析表明, 海温与气温的年际变化相关关系最密切, 相关系数达到76.5%, 置信度高于0.99。其次是盐度与降水, 它们之间亦有良好关系。同年盐度和降水之间的相关系数为- 43.6%, 盐度落后降水一年时相关系数为- 39.2%, 置信度均高于0.95。由此可推知, 盐度变化平均落后降水约半年。渤海水文气象状况变化与厄尔尼诺有一定关系, 其中以降水与厄尔尼诺关系最密切, 1982-1983 年厄尔尼诺期间渤海气温和水温较高, 降水显著偏少且海水盐度显著偏高。 |
| 关键词: 渤海, 水温, 盐度, 气温, 降水, 长期变化 |
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| 基金项目:中国科学院重点项目, KZ952-J1-405 号、中国科学院创新工程项目, KZCX2-202 号、国家自然科学基金项目,40136010 号, 49876010 号和国家重点基础发展规划项目, G1999043808 号。 |
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| LONG-TERM CHANGES AND INTERRELATIONS OF ANNUAL VARIATIONS OF THE HYDROGRAPHICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF THE BOHAI SEA DURING RECENT 30 YEARS |
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FANG Guo-Hong1, WANG Kai1, GUO Feng-Yi2, WEI Ze-Xun1, FAN Wen-Jing2, ZHANG Dong-Sheng2, BI Jia-Sheng2
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1.Institute of Oceanology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.National Center for Marine Information
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| Abstract: |
| The annual mean sea surface temperature ( SST) , sea surface salinity ( SSS) , surface air temperature ( SAT ) and the annual precipitation ( PRC) observed during 1965-1997 at seven coastal oceanic stations along the coast of the Bohai Sea and western North Yellow Sea are analyzed. Trend analysis shows that during this 32-year period the annual rates of change of SST, SSS , SAT and PRC are 0.015 ℃/a, 0.042/a, 0.034 ℃/a and -2.73 mm/a respectively. Correspondingly, during this period SST, SSS and SAT increased by 0.48 ℃, 1.34 and 1.09 ℃, respectively, and PRC decreased by 87mm.
The time series of SST , SSS, SAT, PRC and the annual mean NINO3 SST index ( NI3) are employed to perform running regression analysis between the parameters. The correlation between SST and SAT is the highest. The mean correlation coefficient of the studied coastal oceanic stations is r= 76.5% with time lag l= 0a. The next highest correlation is between SSS and PRC, with the correlation coefficients being r= - 43.6% for l= 0a and r= - 39.2% for l = 1a. This indicates that the variation of SSS lags PRC by about 0.5a.
Generally, correlation between the parameters of the Bohai Sea and the NI3 index is not high. The highest correlation coefficient is that between PRC and NI3, reaching - 25.3% for l= 0a and - 24.8% for l= 1a. This appears to indicate that the low PRC leads high NI3 SST by about 0.5a. The relationship between PRC and NI3 further results in a certain degree of correlation between SSS and NI3: r= 23.2% for l= 0a and r= 21.8% for l= - 1a. In general, the variations of the parameters of the Bohai Sea and the El Nino events do not always have a close relation; however, during the El Nino period of 1982-1983, the Bohai Sea area was characterized by high air temperature, high sea water temperature, drought, and high salinity. |
| Key words: Bohai Sea, Sea surface temperature, Sea surface salinity, Surface air temperature Precipitation, Long-term changes |
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