| 摘要: |
| 根据收集的渤、 黄海沿岸主要海洋站(塘沽、 羊角沟、 烟台、 威海、 乳山口、 青岛和日照)1950年以来各年最高潮位资料(个别站位资料样本较小), 应用能优化处理小样本的基于信息扩散原理的模糊风险评估模型, 对渤、黄海沿岸各海洋站年最高潮位的多年一遇极值情况进行了超越概率计算, 并与《港口工程技术规范》推荐的极值 I 型(Gumbel 曲线)方法进行比较。除羊角沟站误差 3%外, 其它站误差均在 2%及以下, 表明文中基于信息扩散原理的风险评估模型在兼顾小样本条件下所给结果是比较可靠的。这对于潮位等水文实测资料短缺的新建或拟建工程区进行工程水文要素设计重现期的推算将有较好的帮助。
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| 关键词: 风暴潮灾害, 模糊风险评估, 信息扩散, 渤、黄海沿岸 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz201004024024 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目, 40676018号; 山东 908专项 SD-908-02-08任务资助项目和国家 908专项“海浪灾害及其对沿海地区社会经济发展影响综合评价”课题(2005—2010)资助项目 |
附件 |
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| RISK ASSESSMENT OF STORM SURGE DISASTER IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF BOHAI SEA AND YELLOW SEA BASED ON INFORMATION DIFFUSION PRINCIPLE |
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QI Peng1,2, LI Ming-Jie1,2,3, HOU Yi-Jun1,2
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1.Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves(KLOCAW);3.Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| The coastal areas of Bohai sea and Yellow sea are harmed by storm surges of both tropical cyclones in summer infrequently and temperate synoptic systems in spring, autumn and winter frequently. Based on the collected data of annual highest water levels in the areas since 1950, we focused on the calculation of highest water levels of multiyear return periods and risk assessments along the coast of Bohai and Yellow Sea. Due to insufficiency of the historic data we collected, a fuzzy risk assessment model was introduced based on the principle of information diffusion, which is able to optimize small samples. The results from information diffusion were compared and verified with the results from Gumbel curve method, which is recommended by code of harbor engineering. It is shown that the calculated results obtained by information diffusion are reliable and will be helpful to the calculation of highest water levels of design return periods for new engineering areas to be constructed where measured data are insufficient.
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| Key words: rm surge disaster, Fuzzy risk assessment, Information diffusion, Coastal areas of Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea |
