| 摘要: |
| 采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法、有序聚类分析法及线性回归等数学方法, 以胶东半岛五龙河流域为例, 对最近60年来气候变化和人类活动对山地河流入海径流、泥沙的影响进行了研究。结果表明, 20 世纪50年代以来五龙河入海径流、泥沙量均呈现出显著的阶段性逐级减少趋势。最近60年来, 五龙河年径流量和输沙量主要集中在6—9月; 主要受年降水量变化影响, 年径流量从1980年开始显著减少, 并在1966年出现较大波动; 受年降水和径流变化影响, 年输沙量也分别在1966和1980年呈减少突变; 总体来看, 年输沙量减少的趋势性要强于径流量。除气候变化影响外, 1966 年以来流域内大面积坡耕地改梯田和园地、林地建设等人类活动, 也是造成河流径流、泥沙减少的重要原因。整体而言, 最近60年来, 气候变化和人类活动因素对五龙河入海水沙总量减少的贡献率分别为70%—80%和20%—30%。 |
| 关键词: 径流量, 输沙量, 气候变化, 人类活动, 五龙河 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz201205003003 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目, 41071011 号, 41171158 号; 教育部重点项目, 210122 号; 山东省高等学校科技计划项目, J09LE07号 |
附件 |
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| IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON THE RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT LOAD DISCHARGED INTO THE SEA FROM MOUNTAINOUS RIVERS DURING THE LAST 60 YEARS: A CASE STUDY OF WULONG RIVER IN SOUTHERN JIAODONG PENINSULA |
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TIAN Qing1, WANG Qing1, ZHAN Chao1, LIU Ya-Long1, LI Xi-Guo2, LIU Xue-Ping3
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1.Coast Institute of Ludong University;2.Yantai Hydrological Bureau;3.Yantai Meteorological Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| The non-parametric Mann-Kendall Test, Accumulated Difference Curve, Order Cluster Analysis and Linear-Regression Analysis methods were used in this paper to reveal the effect of the climate change and human activities on the annual runoff and sediment load of mountainous rivers over the past 60 years, taking Wulong River Basin of Jiaodong Peninsula as an example. Results obtained showed a number of observations: the annual runoff and sediment load into the sea from Wulong River Basin showed a periodical decreasing process since 1950s. The annual runoff and sediment load of Wulong River were mostly concentrated from June to September over the last 60 years; the annual runoff showed a significant reduction after 1980, due mainly to the decrease of precipitation, but there was an obvious fluctuation at about 1966; the sediment load showed a periodical decreasing process affected mostly by the annual precipitation and annual runoff, with the abrupt change points detected around 1966 and 1980; in comparison, the decreasing trend of sediment load was more significant than that of the annual runoff. In addition, the human activities, such as a large area of sloping farmland was transformed into the terraced field, as well as the forest and orchard land construction since 1966, also made a great contribution to the decrease of runoff and sediment load in the basin. Overall, the total amount of water and sediment load discharged into the sea from Wulong River reduced by about 70%—80% and 20%—30% owing to the climate change and human factors respectively over the last 60 years. |
| Key words: Runoff, Sediment load, Climate change, Human activities, Wulong River |
