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日本南海海槽地震海啸对我国东海沿岸影响
闪迪1,2, 王培涛1,2,3, 任智源1,2, 孙立宁1,2, 赵联大1,2,3, 范婷婷1,2
1.国家海洋环境预报中心 北京 100081;2.国家海洋局海啸预警中心 北京 100081;3.国家海洋环境预报中心海洋灾害预报技术研究国家海洋局重点实验室 北京 100081
摘要:
本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。
关键词:  日本南海海槽  地震海啸  数值模拟  海啸危险性
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20180200038
分类号:P731
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目,2016YFC1401500号。
THE NANKAI TROUGH EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CHINESE COAST OF THE EAST CHINA SEA
SHAN Di1,2, WANG Pei-Tao1,2,3, REN Zhi-Yuan1,2, SUN Li-Ning1,2, ZHAO Lian-Da1,2,3, FAN Ting-Ting1,2
1.National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;2.Tsunami Warning Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China;3.Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
Using a numerical simulation technology, we replayed the propagation of the Hoei Earthquake tsunami occurred in the Nankai Trough, Japan in 1707. We analyzed quantitatively the temporal and spatial characteristics of the tsunami in China's east coast. The calculated results show that the tsunami waves arrived at the shelf of the East China Sea in 2.5 hours and the coast of Zhejiang Province in about 6 hours, and the maximum tsunami height was 0.8m. In addition, we analyzed the amplification of tsunami in the shelf of the East China Sea by studying the relationship between the tsunami amplitude and the gently dipping seafloor. We provided a method that can evaluate quickly the tsunami intensity and degree of the disaster. We also evaluated the potential risk of tsunamis from the Nankai Trough and provided a quantitative scientific basis for tsunami early warning and hazard mitigation.
Key words:  the Nankai Trough  earthquake tsunami  numerical simulation  tsunami risk
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