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引用本文:张翠翠,魏皓,宋贵生,谢川.基于IPCC-CMIP5的中国东部近海表层水温未来预估分析.海洋与湖沼,2020,51(6):1288-1300.
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基于IPCC-CMIP5的中国东部近海表层水温未来预估分析
张翠翠1, 魏皓1, 宋贵生1, 谢川2
1.天津大学海洋科学与技术学院 天津 300072;2.上海交通大学海洋学院 上海 200240
摘要:
近海海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)的变化对我国沿岸海洋生态环境和渔业资源具有重要影响,研究其变化规律尤其是预估其未来变化一直是物理海洋学的重要研究课题。政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)第五次评估报告(The fifth Assessment Report,AR5)对全球及部分典型区域的未来气候变化进行了预估,已成为全球公认的研究气候变化的科学依据。本文利用IPCC第五次评估报告的模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)中五个具有代表性的模式(ACCESS1.3、BCC-CSM1.1、CCSM4、GFDL-ESM2G、MPI-ESM-MR),对未来80年(2030、2060、2090年)相对于2010年中国东部近海(渤海、黄海、东海)表层水温的年代际及季节性变化规律在RCP4.5气候情景下进行了预估分析。通过分析发现中国东部近海表层水温在未来80年内有明显升温趋势:从年代际上看,到2090年表层水温升温幅度达1.18—1.71℃,其中2030—2060年升温最快,2060—2090年升温速度减缓;从季节上看,不同海域不同季节表层水温升温幅度达1.16—2.04℃,中国东部近海各海区在夏季升温幅度较大,冬季较小。
关键词:  中国东部近海  海表温度SST  未来海温预估分析  IPCC-CMIP5
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20191200246
分类号:P731.11
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目资助,2017YFC1404403号;国家自然科学基金青年项目,41806116号。
IPCC-CMIP5 BASED PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS OF FUTURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN COASTAL SEAS EAST OF CHINA
ZHANG Cui-Cui1, WEI Hao1, SONG Gui-Sheng1, XIE Chuan2
1.School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;2.School of Marine Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Abstract:
The changes of sea surface temperature (SST) over coastal seas east of China have affect the local climate changes, marine ecology, and fishery resources in China. The study of SST changes, especially its future trends, has become a hot research topic in oceanography. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a clear and up-to-date view of both global and local climate changes in the worldwide oceans. We used five representative models of CMIP5 (including ACCESS1.3, BCC-CSM1.1, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and MPI-ESM-MR) to project the SST changes over coastal seas east of China (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the East China Sea) under RCP 4.5 scenario in the next 80 years (2030, 2060, 2090) compared to that in 2010. The experimental results demonstrate that SST over the coastal seas east of China would have a significant increase in the next 80 years. The decadal SST would rise by 1.18—1.71℃ till 2090, where the highest increase rate would be achieved from 2030 to 2060. The seasonal SST would increase 1.16—2.04℃, where the increase rate in summer would be more obvious than those in other seasons.
Key words:  coastal seas East of China  sea surface temperature  future seawater temperature projection  IPCC-CMIP5
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