摘要: |
气候变化背景下,灾害风险的不确定性与复杂性也随之增加。青岛是我国北方典型的海岸带丘陵城市,相较于南方沿海城市,风暴潮发生的频率及强度相对较低。但在未来气候变化背景下,风暴潮发生的频率和破坏程度均会增加,同时产生的损失也会增大。本文以风暴潮淹没风险的空间影响为基本切入点,将风暴潮淹没的空间影响范围细化为风暴潮直接淹没区、海浪越坝淹没区、受潮水顶托直接影响的积水区和受潮水顶托间接影响的积水区四类。在此基础上,依托ArcGIS平台,对风暴潮空间影响范围及其变化进行有效量化,并提出重点防控岸段及重点防控期。结果表明:相较于2025年现状情景,在未来气候变化背景下,随着时间尺度增长,风暴潮对青岛市四类淹没风险影响的范围及需重点防控岸段不断扩大,影响范围和部分重点工业区分布有明显的重合趋势,同时影响范围和需重点防控的岸段及时段也随着不同台风类型而不同。因此明晰未来风暴潮可能造成的淹没范围及时段,既可以为青岛市在短时间尺度内规避风暴潮引发的淹没风险,也可以在中长时间尺度内为灾害预防管理和区域规划开发提供一定的理论依据,同时为北方海岸带城市适应气候变化和韧性发展提供一定的理论基础及支撑作用。 |
关键词: 风暴潮淹没 风险 空间影响 气候变化 青岛市 |
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基金项目:C40城市气候行动方案(20200258);中瑞合作项目“中国适应气候变化 (ACCCⅡ) |
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Spatial impact analysis of storm surge on inundation risk in Qingdao city under the background of climate change |
Jia Ruoqi1, Yu Ge1, Jiang Wensheng1, Lin Qun2
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1.Ocean University of China;2.Qingdao Development and Reform Commission
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Abstract: |
Under the background of climate change, the uncertainty and complexity of disaster risks have also increased. Qingdao is a typical coastal hilly city in northern China, with relatively lower frequency and intensity of storm surges compared to southern coastal cities. However, in the context of future climate change, the frequency and degree of damage caused by storm surges will increase, and the resulting losses will also increase. This article takes the spatial impact of storm surge inundation risk as the basic starting point, and refines the spatial impact range of storm surge inundation into four categories: storm surge direct inundation zone, wave over dam inundation zone, water accumulation zone directly affected by tidal uplift, and water accumulation zone indirectly affected by tidal uplift. On this basis, relying on the ArcGIS platform, the spatial impact range and changes of storm surge are effectively quantified, and key prevention and control sections and periods are proposed. The results show that compared to the current situation in 2025, under the background of future climate change, as the time scale increases, the scope of the impact of storm surges on the four types of inundation risks in Qingdao and the key prevention and control sections will continue to expand. The impact scope and distribution of some key industrial areas have a clear overlap trend, and the impact scope, key prevention and control sections, and time periods will also vary with different types of typhoons. Therefore, clarifying the potential inundation range and time period caused by future storm surges can not only help Qingdao avoid the inundation risk caused by storm surges in the short term, but also provide a certain theoretical basis for disaster prevention management and regional planning and development in the medium to long term. At the same time, it can provide a certain theoretical basis and support for northern coastal cities to adapt to climate change and develop resilience. |
Key words: storm surge inundation risk spatial impact climate change Qingdao |