| 摘要: |
| 通过建立ARIMA 模型, 分析了江苏淤泥质海岸四条入海河道(射阳河、新洋港、斗龙港和黄沙港)建闸后闸下河道的冲淤演变过程, 预测闸下河道淤积量的变化情况。结果表明, 射阳河闸下淤积量将会持续增加, 到2010年预计量可达2.47×107 m3 , 淤积量为四条河中最大; 黄沙港和斗龙港有波动上升的趋势, 但无射阳河明显, 淤积量有小幅度增加; 新洋港变化不大, 已达到冲淤平衡的状态。 |
| 关键词: 淤泥质海岸 挡潮闸 淤积和侵蚀 ARIMA模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金( 40576040 ) ; 江苏省自然科学基金( BK2006131) ; 江苏省“六大人才高峰”项目( 2006027) |
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| Study on the sediment siltation downstream tidal barriers in the North of Jiangsu Province |
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| Abstract: |
| The siltation is a key problem of building tidal sluice gate at the river mouth along the intertidal mudflat coasts. In this paper, four rivers (i. e. the Sheyang River, Huangshagang River, Xinyanggang River and Doulonggang River) along the intertidal mudflat coast in the north Jiangsu Province are analyzed on the sediment discharge and channel siltation. The ARIMA model has been established to forecast the quantity of siltation at the river mouth after tidal sluice gate construction. The results show that the siltation of the Sheyang River would increase rapidly in the future without additional treatments. Till 2010, the quantity of sollation will reach 2. 47×107 m3 which is the strongest siltation among the four rivers. The quantities of siltation of bath Huangshagang River and Doulonggang River increase fluctuantly. The quantity of siltation of Xinyanggang River will reach a equilibrium situation. |
| Key words: intertidal mudflat coast tidal sluice gate siltation and erosion ARIMA model |
