| 摘要: |
| 本文利用美国地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)历史试验模拟结果和美国海洋大气局(NOAA)提供的扩展重建的海表温度(ERSST)资料,比较模式模拟和观测的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的时空分布、周期及可预报性等,评估GFDL模式CM3、ESM2M和ESM2G对太平洋海表面温度的年际和年代际变率的模拟能力,结果表明：三个模式对太平洋主要年际信号—ENSO和年代际信号—PDO均有较好的模拟,ESM2G对ENSO的模拟最好,CM3对PDO的模拟与观测更为接近。研究结果为进一步利用模式探讨ENSO和PDO的物理机制提供可能的参考。 |
| 关键词: GFDL模式 ENSO PDO 可预报性 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20150211001 |
| 分类号:732.5 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金委员会创新研究群体科学基金(41421005)；国家自然科学基金委员会与山东省联合基金（U1406401） |
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| Evaluation of Interannual and Decadal Variation of Pacific SST Simulated by GFDL Models |
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MENG Jia-jia,YANG Yu-xing and WANG Fa-ming
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Institute of Oceanology,the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Oceanology,the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Oceanology,the Chinese Academy of Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| The ability of Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) models in simulating interannual and decadal variation of Pacific SST is evaluated by comparing the temporal and spatial distribution, period and predictability of observed and simulated ENSO and PDO, based on the output of historical experiments of GFDL models and extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST)data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In general, the models can commendably capture the interannual signal of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and decadal signal of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO is rightly simulated by ESM2G, while PDO simulated by CM3 is very close to observation. The results may be referenced by the further study of ENSO and PDO physical mechanisms。 |
| Key words: GFDL models ENSO PDO Predictability |