| 摘要: |
| 基于福建省冬半年沿海和港湾岛屿自动站的逐时极大风观测资料和WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)、EC(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格以及T639(TL639L60)三种模式预报的10 m 风场资料, 将模式预报的风向风速与观测资料进行对比检验, 结果表明: 福建省沿海冬半年大风的盛行风向以东北风为主, 大风的时空分布极为不均, 沿海风力的脉动性、跳跃性、局地性突出。从三种模式对风速风向的模拟效果来看, WRF 和EC 细网格的预报效果较好, 有可参考性, T639可参考性不高。对于风速, 模式预报结果相比实况极大风速偏小, 港湾岛屿代表站风速的平均绝对误差均小于沿海代表站, 预报平均误差由沿海向内陆逐渐减小, 由中部向南北逐渐减小。风向相比风速的预报效果要差, WRF 和EC 细网格的风向预报误差在45°～50°, 有一定的参考意义; 港湾岛屿代表站风向的平均绝对误差大于沿海代表站, 以浮标站的误差最大。当观测风速出现7 级及以上风速时, 若对大风进行分级检验, 则较低风速的预报平均绝对误差小于较高风速; 风向预报的平均绝对误差也大大降低, 且误差都在45°以内, 具有良好的参考性。 |
| 关键词: WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)、EC(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)细网格、T639(TL639L60)、大风检验、冬半年、福建沿海 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20140721001 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:福建省气象局自研项目(2015z02);福建省气象局青年科技专项(2015q26); 中国气象局小型基建项目“海洋气象精细化业务系统建设”子项目 |
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| Test and application of WRF, EC and T639 Models in strong wind forecasting in Fujian Coast in winter half year |
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| Abstract: |
| Wind speed and direction at 10 m height forecast by three models including WRF, EC-thin and T639 have been compared with hourly maximum wind got by automatic weather station in Fujian coast in winter half year. Results showed that the prevailing wind direction was north-easterly wind, the space-time distribution of strong wind was uneven and the main characters of strong wind were pulsatile, jumping and local. The simulation effects of strong wind forecast by three models have been discussed, and the results showed that EC-thin and WRF are relatively accurate and T639 is not reliable. For wind speed, the forecast results of three models were less than the maximum wind. The mean absolute deviation of forecasting speed results was greater than those in harbor and coast, which gradually reduced from coast to inland, and from middle coast to southern and northern coast. The forecasting results of wind direction were worse than wind speed. The forecasting direction results of WRF and EC-thin whose deviation was between 45 and 50 degree can be referenced. The mean absolute deviation of forecasting direction results was greater than those in harbor and coast, and those of buoys were greatest. When the wind speed was equal to or greater than seven, the wind was divided to different grades for testing. It turned out that the mean absolute deviation of lower speed was less than that of higher speed, and the deviation of forecasting direction results was greatly reduced, which can be referenced. |
| Key words: WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) EC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) -thin T639(TL639L60) the test of strong wind winter Fujian coast |
