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| 面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法研究 |
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栗健,张晓宁,曹诗嘉,方伟华,杨幸美,刘行,孙京
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北京师范大学,北京师范大学,北京师范大学,北京师范大学,北京师范大学,中国海洋大学,中国海洋大学
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| 摘要: |
| 热带气旋引起的风暴潮-海浪灾害成灾频率高、致灾强度大，对我国沿海地区造成的人员和经济损失惨重。预评估阶段需要在灾前对研究区可能造成的损失等进行快速的综合判定。从历史热带气旋中检索出与目标热带气旋位置及各种致灾因子强度相似的热带气旋是进行快速、准确风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要方法。面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估，提出了一种基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法。用于相似检索的致灾因子数据包括：从中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取出的1949-2013年影响湛江市的112场热带气旋的路径中心点位置、中心气压、最大风速、最大风速半径及移动速度数据，112场热带气旋的模拟风场、风暴潮及海浪数据。首先，利用相似离度方法对热带气旋进行路径相似性检索；其次，利用最优相似系数方法计算中心气压、最大风速半径、最大风速、移动速度、风场、风暴潮及海浪强度指标的相似系数进行一次检索；然后，根据风场、风暴潮及海浪模拟数据的获取情况，分别基于路径-强度及风场-风暴潮-海浪综合相似性指标进行二次检索；最终给出历史热带气旋的综合相似排序。本文以2013年尤特热带气旋为例，利用上述方法展示检索了与其最为相似的5场历史热带气旋。该方法综合考虑了热带气旋路径及多种致灾因子的相似，兼顾了检索的速度及质量，是进行快速、准确的风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要基础。 |
| 关键词: 热带气旋 相似性 路径-强度 风暴潮-海浪 损失预评估 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P457.8 |
| 基金项目:公益性行业科研专项“海洋灾情快速评估和综合研判系统研发与应用示范”(201305020) |
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| Similar Tropical Cyclone Retrieval Method for Rapid Potential Storm Surge and Wave Disaster Loss Assessment based on Multiple Hazard Indictors |
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Li Jian,Zhang Xiaoning,Cao Shijia,Fang Weihua,Yang Xingmei,Liu Xing and Sun Jing
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Beijing Normal University,Beijing Normal University,Beijing Normal University,Beijing Normal University,Beijing Normal University,Ocean University of China,Ocean University of China
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| Abstract: |
| Storm surge and wave induced by tropical cyclone could cause large casualty and economic loss in coastal area of China. It is of great importance to develope a method that can provide pre-event rapid loss assessment in a timely manner prior to the landing of tropical cyclone. It is recognized that tropical cyclones with similar tracks, wind speeds, sizes, forward speeds and directions will result in similar coastal flooding areas and depths, and significant wave heights, and hence similar disaster lossess. In this study, a similar tropical cyclone retrieval method for pre-event storm surge and wave disaster based on multiple hazard indicators is proposed. The method can use typhoon location, central pressure, maximum wind speed, radius of maximum wind and forward speed as the only input dataset, or use the detailed simulated wind fields, storm surges and waves as input. Firstly, the track similarity is measured by similarity deviation considering only the locations of cyclone tracks. Secondly, the similarity of central pressure, radius of maximum wind, maximum wind speed, moving speed, wind field, storm surge and wave intensity indices is measured by best similarity coefficient. The secondary retrieval is then carried out using integrated wind field-storm surge-wave similarity coefficient when simulated wind field, storm surge and wave data is available and integrated track-intensity coefficient is used when the simulated data is not available. Finally, the similarity ranking of historical tropical cyclones is obtained according to integrated similarity coefficient. Taking typhoon Utor (2013) that hit Zhanjiang Area as an example, five of the most similar historical tropical cyclones are retrieved from the 112 historical tropical cyclones. The method is flexible for rapid disaster loss assessment, since it provides a relatively satisfactory result based on two scenarios of input dataset availability. |
| Key words: tropical cyclone similarity track and intensity storm surge-wave rapid potential loss assessment |