| 摘要: |
| 基于遥感技术监测北部湾沿海2000 年～2010 年土地利用变化特征, 应用多要素数据和Logistic-CA-Markov 耦合模型模拟土地利用变化并进行多情景分析。结果表明: 2000 年～2010 年, 耕地是土地转化的主要来源, 城镇、农村居民点及交通工矿的扩张主要来自于耕地, 城镇化加剧增加了耕地保护的压力; 2005 年～2010 年, 沿海围填海的速度较快, 导致海岸线形态发生显著的变化以及海岸带脆弱性的加剧; 基于区域环境与生态保护、经济社会发展的历史过程特征和相关规划, 设计既有趋势延续、城镇化优先、生态保护优先3 种情景, 模拟得到2020 年、2025 年的土地利用分布数据; 综合土地利用变化的历史特征和情景分析的结果, 提出未来土地利用优化的策略与措施, 包括: 优化城镇化空间布局及其发展质量, 严格保护沿海湿地尤其是红树林湿地, 变化热点区域合理规划未来的土地利用方向等。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用变化 北部湾经济带 Logistic 回归 CA-Markov 模型 情景分析 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20150708001 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(31461143032), 中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-TZ-15, KZZD-EW-14) |
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| Spatio-temporal characteristics and scenario analysis of land-use change in the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim coastal area, China |
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SU Hong-fan,HOU Xi-yong,DI Xiang-hong
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| Abstract: |
| Considering the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim coastal area as an example, land-use maps from 2000, 2005, and 2010 were created on the basis of remote sensing techniques. Moreover, the spatio-temporal characteristics of land-use change from 2000 to 2010 were revealed. Then, a Logistic-CA-Markov model was developed to simulate land-use change and forecast its future tendencies under different scenarios. Results show that from 2000 to 2010, farmland, grassland, coastal wetland, and unused land decreased, whereas forest, inland wetland, urban areas, rural settlements, and isolated industrial-mining areas increased. Farmland is the main source of land transformation and has been changed into forest, rural settlements, urban areas, and isolated industrial-mining areas. In addition, from 2005 to 2010, parts of the increased urban and isolated industrial-mining areas were reclaimed from coastal wetland and sea areas, which in turn, markedly changed the mainland shoreline. Under a business-as-usual scenario, land-use change will follow the trend as from 2005 to 2010; under an urbanization priority scenario, urban areas, rural settlements, and isolated industrial-mining areas will increase significantly and will occupy farmland, water bodies, or wetlands in both inland and coastal areas; under an ecological protection priority scenario, wetlands, natural conservation areas, vegetation cover, and farmlands will be effectively protected from excessive reclamation. Information from this study can be useful for strategies on urbanization optimization, coastal wetland conversation, and reasonable land-use planning in hotspot areas. |
| Key words: Land-use change Beibu Gulf Economic Rim Logistic Regression CA-Markov model Scenario Analysis |
