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| 2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究 |
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任智源1,2, 原 野1,2,3, 赵联大1,2,3, 王培涛1,2,3, 侯京明1,2,3, 徐志国1,2,3, 高 义1,2,3, 李宏伟1,2, 闪 迪1,2, 王君成1,2, 范婷婷1,2, 王宗辰1,2
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1.国家海洋环境预报中心;2.国家海洋局海啸预警中心;3.国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室
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| 摘要: |
| 回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。 |
| 关键词: 地震海啸 海啸预警 数值模拟 浅水波方程 Boussinesq 方程 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20170214002 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1401500); 国家海洋公益性行业科研专项项目(201405026); 海洋工程国家重点实验室开放课题(1604); 留学人员科技活动项目择优资助 |
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| Monitoring, early warning and numerical study of global tsunamis in 2016 |
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REN Zhi-yuan,YUAN Ye,ZHAO Lian-da,WANG Pei-tao,HOU Jing-ming,XU Zhi-guo,GAO Yi,LI Hong-wei,SHAN Di,WANG Jun-cheng,FAN Ting-ting,WANG Zong-chen
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| Abstract: |
| This study reviewed global earthquake tsunami warnings in 2016, monitored by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (National Tsunami Warning Center, SOA), and introduced the five typical tsunami events-basedon tsunami generation and propagation numerical models. We have responded from 45 submarine earthquakes, above a magnitude of 6.5 (Mw> 5.5 in the coastal region of China), and released 81 times of earthquake information in 2016. No tsunami affected Chinese Coasts. This study has focused on the Sumatran tsunami of Mw 7.8, the Ecuadorian tsunami of Mw 7.8, the New Zealand tsunamis of Mw 7.1 and 7.8, and the Solomon tsunami of Mw 7.8, and presented maximum tsunami wave distribution and wave fluctuation data based on refined numerical results and measurements. The numerical results could reproduce the tsunami scenarios and match the measured data well. Comparison between the uniform fault model and the finite fault model with the multi-plate for the Ecuadorian tsunami of Mw 7.8 is presented. The dispersion effect on tsunami propagation is discussed based on the simulation results of the New Zealand tsunami of Mw 7.1 with Boussinesq equation. |
| Key words: Tsunami Tsunami early warning numerical modeling shallow water equation Boussinesq equation |
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