| 摘要: |
| 剑鱼（Xiphias gladius）属于大洋性中上层高度洄游性鱼种，是远洋渔业重要的目标渔获物和兼捕种类，具有较高经济价值。本文在北太平洋金枪鱼与类金枪鱼国际科学委员会（ISC）对剑鱼资源评估结果基础上，使用1951年到2018年渔获量数据，通过先验参数设置构造操作模型模拟北太平洋中西部剑鱼的种群动态和渔业动态，通过不同管理策略捕捞规则计算对数据和参数要求筛选出9种备选管理策略（DD，DD4010，CC1，SBT1，GB_slope，ICI，ICI2，SPmod，MCD）并对其管理效果进行量化分析，并对短期和长期产量进行预测。通过对各先验参数时间序列分布及各管理策略的权衡，使用Kobe图表达实施管理策略前后剑鱼资源状况的变化，最终确定使用根据时间序列平均值和标准误差指数来调整渔获量的管理策略（ICI）为最佳的管理策略。对9种管理策略其中4种输出型管理策略（MCD，ICI，ICI2，SPmod）进行总可捕量（TAC）计算，分别拟合中国台湾CPUE序列和日本CPUE序列，最终得到ICI管理策略对未来50年TAC控制量在10 404.48 t，50%置信区间在6 678.51~18 743.22 t。对最终所选择的ICI管理策略进行敏感性测试，结果表明其对渔获量和丰度指数较为敏感。 |
| 关键词: 剑鱼 管理策略评价 管理策略权衡 敏感性分析 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20210416001 |
| 分类号:S932.4 |
| 基金项目:农业农村部国家远洋渔业观察员项目（08-25） |
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| Management strategy evaluation of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) in the Western and Central North Pacific Ocean |
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DAI Xiao-jie1,2,3, LIU Yu1, XIA Meng1
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1.College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;2.National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China;3.Ministry of Education, Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Ocean Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China
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| Abstract: |
| As an eminently migratory fish species,swordfish (Xiphias gladius) is an important division of the Western and Central North Pacific Ocean fish stock that constitutes high economic value.Based on the stock assessment result of the International Scientific Committee for Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean (ISC) with catch data from 1952 to 2018,operating models were created in which stock dynamics of swordfish in the Western and Central North Pacific Ocean were defined by setting a prior parameter.Nine alternative management procedures,Delay – Difference Stock Assessment (DD),Delay – Difference Stock Assessment 4010(DD4010),Geromont and Butterworth Constant Catch (CC1),SBT simple MP (SBT1),Geroment and Butterworth index slope Harvest Control Rule (GB_slope),Index Confidence Interval (ICI),Index Confidence Interval 2(ICI2),Surplus production based catch-limit modifier (SPmod),and Mean Catch Depletion (MCD) were chosen to be tested in our simulation circulation with 48 simulations of 50 years yield projection.Through the priors of the time series and trade-offs on management procedures,the impact on stock status with the implementation of management procedures was intuitively represented by generating Kobe plots,and ICI was concluded as the best management strategy.Following this,total allowable catch (TAC) calculation was carried out using two time series abundance index data from Chinese Taipei and Japan.TAC results were calculated under the implementation of 4 output-control management procedures (MCD,ICI,ICI2,and SPmod).TAC results of ICI were established as 10 404.48(6 678.51~18 743.22) with a 50% confidence interval.Subsequently,sensitivity analysis on each parameter within ICI was conducted,wherein the results demonstrated that it is sensitive to both catch and abundance index data. |
| Key words: swordfish management strategy evaluation management strategy trade-off sensitivity analysis |
