| 摘要: |
| 黄河口临近海域海冰是渤海海冰的一部分，为了解其独特的变化特征及机制，本研究基于北海预报中心提供的黄河口周边海洋台站观测数据以及CMEMS全球海冰密集度再分析数据，使用统计分析和两种滑动相关分析，结合小波相干方法及大气过程的影响，得到长期变化分析的结果：黄河口冰情在1979至2020年间整体呈减轻趋势（-0.25 %/年），显然其直接因素为局地温度整体升高；海冰密集度与黄河径流量呈明显正相关，相关系数为0.46，其原因为径流增大导致盐度降低，海冰增加； 北极涛动指数（AOI）呈明显负相关，相关系数为-0.44，因为当北极涛动为正位相时，东亚大槽强度减弱，北极冷空气南侵受阻隔，冬季黄河口的整体气温升高，导致海冰减少；1997年和2016年左右与北极涛动的相关性都出现了显著正异常，其原因为两次强厄尔尼诺事件的影响，同时海冰密集度在1985年左右的跃变可能与AOI和黄河径流量 的突变有关。短期变化分析的结果显示：从 2010年和2020年冬季逐日的典型寒潮过程与海冰密集度的变化分析可知，海冰与前6天负积温的相关性最大，平均相关系数为-0.77，寒潮的出现时间、强度及间隔，控制海冰的生成，而整体气温的低频变化控制海冰的维持和发展。 |
| 关键词: 黄河口 海冰 变化特征 长期趋势 控制机制 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1502801)；三亚崖州湾科技城科技专项资助(SCKJ-JYRC-2022-101)；崖州湾科技城南海海洋大数据中心项目（SKJC-2022-01-001） |
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| Analysis on the change characteristics and mechanism of sea ice change in the sea area near the Yellow River Estuary |
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HU Shi-Qiang1,2, LI Ge3, DENG Yao-Cheng4, LIU Juan5, SU Liang6, YU Hua-Ming1,2
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1.Physical Oceanography Laboratory &2.Ocean-Atmospheric Interaction and Climate Laboratory,Ocean University of China;3.North China Sea Marine Forecast Center;4.Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean-Atmospheric Interaction and Climate Laboratory,Ocean University of China;5.Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology;6.Qingdao Supercomputing and Big Data Center
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| Abstract: |
| The sea ice in the sea area near the Yellow River estuary is a part of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea. In order to understand its unique change characteristics and mechanisms, this study is based on the observation data of the ocean stations around the Yellow River estuary provided by the North Sea Forecast Center and the reanalysis data of the CMEMS global sea ice concentration, using statistical analysis and two kinds of sliding correlation analysis, combined with wavelet coherence method and the impact of atmospheric processes, The results of long-term change analysis show that the ice regime in the Yellow River estuary has a decreasing trend (- 0.25%/year) from 1979 to 2020, obviously the direct factor is the overall increase of local temperature; The sea ice concentration is positively correlated with the runoff of the Yellow River, because the runoff increases and the salinity decreases, leading to the increase of sea ice; The sea ice concentration is significantly negatively correlated with the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), with a correlation coefficient of -0.44, because when the Arctic Oscillation is in a positive phase, the strength of the East Asia Trough is weakened, the Arctic cold air is blocked from invading to the south, and the overall temperature of the Yellow River Estuary in winter increases, leading to the reduction of sea ice; There were significant positive anomalies in the correlation with the Arctic Oscillation around 1997 and 2016, because the impact of two strong El Ni?o events exceeded the Arctic Oscillation. Similarly, the jump of sea ice concentration around 1985 is mainly related to the sudden change of the AOI or . The results of short-term change analysis show that: from the analysis of daily typical cold wave process in winter of 2010 and 2020 and the change of sea ice concentration, it can be seen that the sea ice has the largest correlation with the negative accumulated temperature of the past six days, with an average correlation coefficient of -0.77. The occurrence, intensity and interval of the cold wave control the generation of sea ice, while the low-frequency change of the overall temperature controls the maintenance and development of sea ice. |
| Key words: Yellow River Estuary Sea ice Change characteristics Long term trends control mechanism |