| 摘要: |
| 海洋表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST）是海洋中最重要的物理参数之一。它的变化会对海洋生态系统和人类社会产生重要的影响。近40年远洋渔业主要作业海域在太平洋、大西洋和印度洋均有分布，海洋表面温度的异常变化必然影响到在三大洋的远洋渔业主要作业海域。基于美国国家海洋大气管理局的最优插值月平均海表温度（NOAA OISST）数据（1982～2021年）与澳大利亚气象局发布的1982～2021年的南方涛动指数（Southern Oscillation Index，SOI ），分别对远洋渔业主要作业海域1982～2021年的海表温度异常（SSTA）的时间序列进行年纪变动分析，使用傅里叶变换计算时间序列的显著变动周期，并对SSTA与SOI进行了相关性分析，并采用 STL分解査看各洋区海温变化的季节性强度和趋势。结果表明，1982年至2021年间，远洋渔业主要作业海域的海表温度异常总体的波动范围在-0.39℃至0.37℃之间，波动周期为3至4年。与同期的SOI时间序列相比，从年际尺度上看，两者呈反相位波动。经过显著性分析发现，年平均海表温度异常值与SOI时间序列在0.05显著水平上呈负相关，相关指数为0.351。这一结果与1982年至2011年远洋渔业主要作业海域海表温度异常年际变化分析结果进行对比发现，远洋渔业主要作业海域平均SSTA呈持续上升趋势，且从各渔场的SSTA趋势曲线来看各渔场均呈上升趋势；太平洋东部和太平洋东南部渔场的趋势从下降转变为上升，进一步说明了渔场SSTA变动受ENSO事件的影响。通过去趋势后对SSTA时间序列与SOI时间序列进行相关性分析，发现太平洋东部、太平洋西北部、大西洋中部和印度洋东部具有显著的相关性，相关系数分别为-0.874、0.395、0.334和-0.380，而其他渔场的SSTA与SOI无显著相关性；季节性强度排序显示,太平洋西北部和东印度洋的季节性强度最高,西太平洋最低；与前30年的均值与整体均值标准差的对比分析表明，近10年里远洋渔业主要作业海域海表温度异常的均值呈现明显上升趋势，且具有更大的温度波动范围和变化不稳定性，这表明近10年气候变化对海洋的影响更为显著。 |
| 关键词: 远洋渔业，海表温度(SST)，海表温度异常(SSTA)，南方涛动指数(SOI)，STL分解 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2023YFD2401303)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(东海水产研究所2022ZD0402) |
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| Analysis of Interannual Changes in Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Main Operating Areas of Pelagic Fishery Over the Past 40 Years |
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LAI Qixiang, Zhou Weifeng
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East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the most important physical parameters in the ocean. Changes in SST will have an important impact on the marine ecosystem and human society. In the past 40 years, the main operating areas of pelagic fisheries have been distributed in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and the abnormal changes of sea surface temperature will inevitably affect the main operating areas of pelagic fisheries in the three oceans. Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Optimum Interpolated Monthly Mean Sea Surface Temperature (NOAA OISST) data (1982-2021) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 1982-2021, the sea surface temperature anomalies of the main operating areas for pelagic fisheries for the years 1982-2021 were analyzed, respectively. The time series of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) from 1982 to 2021 were analyzed, and the Fourier transform was used to calculate the period of significant changes in the time series, and the correlation between the SSTA and the SOI was analyzed, and the STL decomposition was used to investigate the seasonal intensity and trend of SST changes in each oceanic region. The results show that the overall fluctuation range of SST anomalies in the main operating areas of offshore fisheries between 1982 and 2021 is between -0.39℃ and 0.37℃, with a fluctuation period of 3 to 4 years. Compared with the SOI time series over the same period, they fluctuated in inverse phase on an interannual scale. After the significance analysis, it was found that the annual mean SST anomalies were negatively correlated with the SOI time series at a significant level of 0.05, with a correlation index of 0.351. Comparison of this result with the results of the analysis of the inter-annual changes of SST anomalies in the main operating areas of the pelagic fisheries from 1982 to 2011 showed that the average SSTA in the main operating areas of the pelagic fisheries showed a sustained increasing trend, and the trend curves of SSTA of the various fisheries indicated that the average SSTA in the main operating areas of the pelagic fisheries showed a continuous increase. The SSTA trend curves of each fishing ground show that all fishing grounds have an increasing trend; the trend of the fishing grounds in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the southeastern Pacific Ocean has changed from decreasing to increasing, which further indicates that the changes of SSTA in the fishing grounds are affected by the ENSO events. Correlation analysis of the SSTA time series with the SOI time series after detrending revealed significant correlations in the eastern Pacific, northwestern Pacific, mid-Atlantic, and eastern Indian Oceans, with correlation coefficients of -0.874, 0.395, 0.334, and -0.380, respectively, whereas there was no significant correlation between the SSTA and SOI in the other fishing grounds; the ordering of the seasonal strengths showed that the The seasonal intensity is highest in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and East Indian Ocean, and lowest in the West Pacific Ocean. Comparative analysis with the mean and standard deviation of the overall mean of the previous 30 years shows that the mean of sea surface temperature anomalies of the main operating areas of pelagic fisheries has shown a significant upward trend in the past 10 years, and has a greater range of temperature fluctuations and instability, which indicates that the impact of climate change on the oceans has been more pronounced in the last 10 years. |
| Key words: Pelagic Fishery Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) STL decomposition |