首页 | 期刊简介 | 编委会 | 投稿指南 | 常用下载 | 联系我们 | 期刊订阅 | In English
引用本文:尤再进.海洋重现期波高统一化计算方法.海洋与湖沼,2022,53(4):1015-1025.
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器  关闭
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 43次   下载 68 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
海洋重现期波高统一化计算方法
尤再进
大连海事大学港口与航运安全协创中心 辽宁大连 116085
摘要:
重现期波高是港口海岸及海洋工程设计中不可回避的一个重要设计参数,尤其对深水海港、海上平台、海底油气管道、沿海核电站等重大涉海工程设计具有巨大的经济价值和深远的社会效益。但是,现有重现期波高推算缺乏统一的计算方法,导致计算结果相差悬殊。研究重现期波高的统一化计算方法,分析重现期波高计算中存在的各种不确定因素,提出减少这些不确定因素的新方法,建立误差小、应用方便、方法统一的重现期波高计算方法。基于澳大利亚悉尼站的长期连续观测波浪数据,研究发现:广义帕累托函数(generalized Pareto distribution III,GPD-III)和威布尔(Weibull)是重现期波高计算的最佳候选极值分布函数,新推导的函数形状参数计算公式较好提高重现期波高的计算精度,极值波高数据的分析方法和样本大小是影响重现期波高计算精确度的两个重要因素,短期波浪资料和年极值法可能高估重现期波高值。逐个风暴的极值波高数据分析法及最佳候选极值分布函数GPD-III和Weibull建议应用于涉海工程设计的重现期波高推算。
关键词:  重现期  重现期波高  极值分析  广义极值函数  广义帕累托函数
DOI:10.11693/hyhz20220300051
分类号:TV139.2
基金项目:NSFC-山东联合重点基金,U1806227号。
附件
UNIFIED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATION OF RETURN OCEAN WAVE HEIGHT
YOU Zai-Jin
Centre for Ports and Maritime Safety, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116085, China
Abstract:
Return wave height is an important parameter in the design of coastal and ocean engineering. Accurate calculation of design or return wave height is of enormous economic value and social value especially for deep-water harbors, ocean platforms, subsea gas and oil pipelines, and coastal nuclear power stations. However, there is no unique approach for calculation of return wave height, and results from different methods are significantly different. The present study is undertaken to analyze uncertainty in extrapolation of return wave height, minimize errors, and develop a unified methodology for calculation of return wave height. Based on long-term wave data continuously collected at Sydney permanent wave station on the coast of New South Wales in Australia, it is found that GPD-III and Weibull are the most suitable candidate distribution functions for extrapolation of return wave heights, newly derived formulation Eq.(8) will enable us to accurately estimate the shape parameters of the two distribution functions. The sample size and analysis method of extreme wave data are two important factors affecting the accuracy of return wave height extrapolated. Short wave records and the use of annual maximum method for analysis of extreme wave data could underestimate the return wave heights. The storm-by-storm method for analysis of extreme wave data and GPD-III or Weibull for extrapolation of return wave heights are highly recommended for coastal and ocean engineering design purposes.
Key words:  return period  return wave height  extreme value analysis  GEV (generalized extreme value)  GPD (generalized Pareto distribution)
版权所有 海洋与湖沼 Oceanologia et Limnlolgia Sinica Copyright©2008 All Rights Reserved
主管单位:中国科协技术协会 主办单位:中国海洋湖沼学会
地址:青岛市福山路32号  邮编:266071  电话:0532-82898753  E-mail:ols@qdio.ac.cn
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司