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舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用水平的灰色评价与预测
倪海儿¹, 周瑞娟²
1.宁波大学生命科学与生物工程学院, “应用海洋生物技术”教育部重点实验室;2.宁波大学生命科学与生物工程学院

摘要:

采用灰色系统理论对渔业资源可持续利用水平的评价和预测方法进行了探讨, 建立了渔业资源可持续利用水平的灰色聚类评价模型和灰色BP(误差反向传播)神经网络预测模型。在此基础上,根据舟山市1954—2005 年有关渔业资源环境、经济和社会状况的指标, 对舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用水平进行了评价与预测, 阐述了舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用水平的变化过程。对舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用水平的预测结果表明, 由灰色BP 神经网络预测模型预测的平均相对误差为1.88%。

关键词: 渔业资源, 可持续利用, 评价, 预测

DOI：10.11693/hyhz200903011011

分类号:

基金项目:浙江省自然科学基金项目, Y306163 号

GREY EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF SUSTAINABLE USE OF FISHERIES RESOURCES IN ZHOUSHAN FISHERIES GROUND

NI Hai-Er^1,2, ZHOU Rui-Juan¹

1.Faculty of Life Science and Biotechnology, Ningbo University;2.Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biotechnology, Ministry of Education

Abstract:

By testing the method of evaluating and forecasting the sustainable use of fisheries resources in grey system theory, a grey clustering evaluation model and a grey BP (error back propagation) neural network model were built. The evaluation and forecast on the sustainable use of fisheries resources were conducted based on the data of resource-environment, economy, and society in Zhoushan Fishing Ground during 1954—2005. The result is ideal for having the relative error of forecasting at 1.88% only.

Key words: Fisheries resource, Sustainable use, Evaluation, Forecast

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