| 摘要: |
| 利用广东省中部沿海台站气象资料，统计分析了影响该地区的热带气旋频数、强度、发生源地、大风风速等气候特征及变化趋势，并进行了台站资料的重现期风速计算。结果表明：热带气旋影响广东省中部沿海多出现于6－9月，其中尤以8月最多；影响热带气旋以强热带风暴和台风最多，它们多生成于南海北部和菲律宾群岛以东洋面；在过去50年间影响热带气旋频数总体上略有下降，在1970和1980年代较多，1960年代和1995－2010年期间较少，影响热带气旋的强度有减弱的趋势。重现期风速极值分布总体上呈从沿岸向内陆迅速减小，以及西部略大、东部略小的特点。 |
| 关键词: 影响热带气旋，频数，强度，源地，大风风速，重现期 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz20121128001 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）,国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Climatic variation of tropical cyclones and return period of high wind speed affecting middle of Guangdong coast |
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Zheng Yunxia
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Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA
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| Abstract: |
| By using the data from the weather stations in middle of Guangdong coast, characteristics and changes of tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting middle of Guangdong coast over 59 years (1952-2010) were analyzed, in terms of their numbers, intensity，source region distribution，high wind speed and interannual and decadal variability, the return period of high wind speed of 14 weather stations were also analyzed. The results indicate that the affecting TCs of middle Guangdong coast occur mainly from June to September, and particularly in August. Most of the intensity of affecting TCs is STS or TY and the mostly source regions locate at northern South China Sea and east ocean of Philippines islands. Over the past 50 years, it shows a decrease of affecting TCs on the whole, and it increase in 1970’s and 1980’s while decrease in 1960’s and 1995 to 2010, the skew of intensity shows a downward tendency. The extreme wind of all return period shows rapidly decrease from coast to inland, and it’s slightly larger in western than in eastern part. |
| Key words: affecting TC,frequency,intensity,source region,high wind speed, return period |
