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| 中国浙江和福建海域台风浪变化特征和趋势 |
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冯兴如1,2,3, 杨德周1,2,3, 尹宝树1,2,3,4, 李明杰5
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1.中国科学院海洋研究所 青岛 266071;2.中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室 青岛 266071;3.青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室 青岛 266237;4.中国科学院大学 北京 100049;5.国家海洋环境预报中心 北京 100081
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| 摘要: |
| 基于非结构网格的海浪-海流耦合模式SWAN+ADCIRC （Simulating Waves Nearshore+Advanced Circulation model），模拟了1997-2016年共20年间所有影响浙江和福建海域台风过程期间的海浪过程。利用4个台风过程期间的海浪观测数据对模拟结果进行了验证，模拟结果和实测结果吻合较好。基于该长时间序列台风浪模拟结果，分别分析了浙江和福建海岸带台风浪有效波高极值以及台风浪有效波高大于1m和1.5m的持续时间。结果显示，在福建北部海岸带台风浪有效波高极值和台风浪有效波高大于1m的持续时间（tHs>1）有显著增长的趋势。其中，台风浪高极值的增长趋势最大可达0.05m/a，tHs>1的增长趋势位于0.54至1.72h/a之间。分析tHs>1与ENSO指数的关系发现，福建省南部海域台风浪与ENSO指数有较显著的负相关，浙江省北部海域台风浪与ENSO指数有较显著的正相关，ENSO信号对这两个海域的台风浪有着较显著的影响。 |
| 关键词: 台风浪 耦合模式 趋势 浙江福建海域 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz20180200036 |
| 分类号:P731 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目，2016YFC1402000号，2016YFC1401500号；国家自然科学基金项目，41776016号。 |
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| THE CHANGE AND TREND OF THE TYPHOON WAVES IN ZHEJIANG AND FUJIAN COASTAL AREAS OF CHINA |
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FENG Xing-Ru1,2,3, YANG De-Zhou1,2,3, YIN Bao-Shu1,2,3,4, LI Ming-Jie5
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1.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science, Qingdao 266071, China;2.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Chinese Academy of Science, Qingdao 266071, China;3.Function Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;4.University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China;5.National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| The unstructured wave-current coupled model SWAN+ADCIRC (Simulating Waves Nearshore+ Advanced Circulation model) has been used to simulate the typhoon waves along the coast of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results compared well with the in situ observation data during 4 typhoon processes. The simulated wave results were used to analyze the extreme of significant wave height and the duration of the significant wave height greater than 1.0 and 1.5m. Results show that the extreme of significant wave height and duration of the significant wave height greater than 1.0m (tHs>1) had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province. The extreme significant wave height trends reached up to 0.05m/a, and the increasing trend of the duration of significant wave height greater than 1.0m (tHs>1)ranged from 0.54 to 1.72h/a Further analysis showed that the duration of the significant wave height greater than 1.0m and the annual ENSO index had an significant negative correlation for the coastal area of southern Fujian Province, and had an significant positive correlation for the coastal area of northern Zhejiang Province, which means the ENSO signal affects the typhoon waves significantly for this two coastal areas. The results of this study are useful for the coastal management by the government, prevention and mitigation of the marine disasters and also for the long-term forecasting of the typhoon waves. |
| Key words: typhoon waves coupled model trends Zhejiang and Fujian coastal areas |