| 摘要: |
| 目前国内海岸带城市洪水淹没风险领域中较多关注单一致灾因子（风暴潮）导致的淹没，缺乏对导致海岸带洪水发生的其他致灾因子的自然属性和社会属性的综合考量。根据风险的内涵，借鉴国外综合性风险评价理念，将洪水淹没自然机理模型与概念框架模型相结合，选取能表征风险发生概率的自然过程指标以及能表征风险危害性后果的社会经济类指标，构建具有针对性的海岸带型洪水淹没风险评价指标体系，对青岛市洪水淹没风险进行综合评估。研究得出青岛市洪水淹没风险指数值为0.3240，根据我国主要海域自然灾害等级划分（表3），可知其风险等级为3，危险性属于中等水平；确定了青岛市洪水淹没风险的各类致灾体与其影响因素之间的相关性；并得出洪水淹没风险的自然因素和人为可控因素两类关键性控制指标制定短期和长期性的适应策略和行动，充分利用可调节因素，有效加强并提高防范性指标，以期到达最大程度上降低青岛市洪水淹没风险。 |
| 关键词: 洪水淹没 风险 评价 海岸带 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz20170600164 |
| 分类号:X43 |
| 基金项目:中瑞国际合作项目，1NTASAVEACCC-045号。 |
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| COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF FLOODING RISK IN COASTAL ZONES—A CASE STUDY OF QINGDAO CITY |
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LIAO Qi1, YU Ge1, JIANG Wen-Sheng1, MA Yan2, LIN Qun3, LIU Ke-Xiu4, WANG Yan-Ping1, SUN Xue1
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1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;2.Qingdao Meteorological Administration, Qingdao 266003, China;3.Qingdao economic and information technology Committee, Qingdao 266071, China;4.National Marine Information Center, Tianjin 300480, China
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| Abstract: |
| Present research and assessment on coastal flooding risk emphasize the storm surge as a single disaster factor while ignoring other factors' natural and social attributes. Taking Qingdao City as a case, we clarified the connotation of the risk, summarized successful risk assessment concept from international practices, integrated the natural mechanism model and conceptual framework model of coastal flooding, contemplated the indicators of natural processes, and characterized the probability of occurrence of the risk. By applying socioeconomic indicators, we built a robust evaluation system of the flooding risk, aiming to provide an effective technical and methodological support to the flooding risk assessment of coastal cities. Results show that the flooding risk index of Qingdao is 0.3240, and the flooding risk level is 3 under the China's national standard, which, in other words, indicates intermediate-level risk at present. In addition, the correlation between various risk factors and flooding inductive bodies was specified. At last, we established the strategy of prevention against natural disaster with human-being interferences, and formulated short-term and long-term adaptation tactics and actions, to prevent or reduce the impact of flooding risk in Qingdao City. |
| Key words: flooding risk assessment coastal zones Qingdao City |
