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| 副热带南北太平洋经向模与ENSO的关系 |
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鲁云龙1,2,3,4, 冯俊乔1,2,4,5, 贾凡1,2,4,5, 王庆业1,2,4,5
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1.中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室 青岛 266071;2.中国科学院海洋研究所 青岛 266071;3.中国科学院大学 北京 100049;4.中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心 青岛 266071;5.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室 海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室 青岛 266237
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| 摘要: |
| 本文利用Hadley中心的海表面温度、海洋再分析资料ORAS4（Ocean Reanalysis System 4）的海表面高度、NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）的海气界面风场及热通量等数据，分析了1948—2018年期间副热带南、北太平洋经向模（South Pacific meridional mode，SPMM、North Pacific meridional mode，NPMM）的基本特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño and Southern Oscillation，ENSO）的关系。结果显示，两个副热带太平洋经向模对应的海表面温度异常都呈现南北反位相的偶极子结构，并与ENSO关系密切：当Niño3.4滞后北太平洋经向模10个月时，二者达到最大正相关；Niño3.4滞后南太平洋经向模6个月时，二者达到最大正相关。换句话说，在副热带太平洋发生北太平洋经向模正位相事件（北太平洋东南暖，西北冷）1 a后或者南太平洋经向模正位相事件（南太平洋东北暖，西南冷）半年后，热带太平洋可能会发生厄尔尼诺事件。据此，利用二元线性回归方法建立了基于南太平洋经向模和北太平洋经向模预测ENSO的统计模型，得到拟合的Niño3.4和观测的Niño3.4之间的相关系数达0.57，预测效果良好。 |
| 关键词: ENSO 南太平洋经向模 北太平洋经向模 |
| DOI：10.11693/hyhz20200400115 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金，41976027号，41876008号。 |
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| RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL SOUTH/NORTH PACIFIC MERIDIONAL MODES AND ENSO |
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LU Yun-Long1,2,3,4, FENG Jun-Qiao1,2,4,5, JIA Fan1,2,4,5, WANG Qing-Ye1,2,4,5
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1.Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;2.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China;5.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
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| Abstract: |
| The relationship of the subtropical South/North Pacific Meridional Modes (SPMM, NPMM) with ENSO was investigated using sea surface temperature (SST) data from Hadley center, Sea surface height (SSH) from ORAS4(Ocean Reanalysis System 4), and wind and air-sea heat flux from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis 1 (1948-2018). Results show that the SSTA associated with the two meridional modes both show north-south dipole patterns and are closely related to ENSO. The significant maximum positive correlation appears when Niño3.4 lags NPMM for 10 months, there are significant maximum positive correlations when Niño3.4 lags for 6 months, with the peak correlation appearing at 6-month lag. In other words, about one year after a positive NPMM (North Pacific:warm in the southeast and cold in the northwest) appears in the north Pacific, or half a year after a positive SPMM (South Pacific:warm in the northeast and cold in the southwest) happens in the south Pacific, and there will be an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. A binary linear regression model was constructed based on SPMM and NPMM to improve ENSO prediction. The correlation between the reconstructed Niño3.4 and the observed Niño3.4 reached 0.57. |
| Key words: ENSO subtropical South Pacific meridional mode subtropical North Pacific meridional mode |