| 摘要: |
| 为了准确地研判日本珍珠产业发展势态，科学地确立中国珍珠产业发展目标，有效地制定中国珍珠产业发展政策，采用EVIEWS5.0软件构建了指数平滑模型，并对日本2008～2015年的珍珠产量进行了预测，预测结果显示日本的珍珠产量持续下降，到2015年日本的珍珠产量达到12.35 t。
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| 关键词: 指数平滑模型 日本珍珠产量 预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:广东省自然基金资助项目（9152408801000019） |
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| Application of exponential smoothing model to forecasting the yield of Japanese pearl |
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ZHANG Li,LUO Peng
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| Abstract: |
| Japan is the world’s cultured pearl country for the first large-scale, which plays an important role in the pearl history of the world. In recent years, Japan’s pearl production decreased year after year. However, the Japanese government is to maintain its leading position in the world, using advanced processing technology, and imports pearls around the world, then exportes after processing in return for high pro-fits. Japan’s advanced culture, processing technology, norms industry management, importuning intellectual property protection and consumers rights have an important inspiration for the development of China’s pearl. In order to accurately judge Japan’s pearl industry developments and scientifically establish goal of China’s pearl industry, it is necessary to set up China’s pearl industry development policies. In this paper, the exponential smoothing mode is built with EVIEWS 5.0, and Japan's pearl production in 2008～2015 is forecasted. The prediction results showed that Japan's pearl production continued to decline and would reach 12.35 tons in 2015.
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| Key words: exponential smoothing model Japanese pearl production forecast |
