| 摘要: |
| 使用1982-2014年NOAA最优插值1/4度逐日海温分析资料、美国国家海洋数据中心（NODC）提供的海洋上层700m热含量数据和美国联合台风警报中心（JTWC）的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料，分析西北太平洋地区（0o-30oN，105o-155oE）TC活动的时空分布特征，探讨TC与海洋上层热状态之间的关系。结果表明：TC频数具有显著的年代际变化特征：1982-1992年和2003-2014年皆为低频期，而1993-2002年则为高频期，33年来TC发生频数表现为缓慢增加—快速增加—减少的特征。最近15年（2000—2014年），TC数量呈现明显下降的趋势。在西北太平洋，TC有3个明显的源地，分别为源地1（10o -22oN、110o-120oE）；源地2（8o -20oN、125o -145oE）；和源地3（5o -20oN、145o -155oE）。源地1、源地2的频数呈上升趋势，而源地3呈下降趋势。海洋上层热状态的变化给TC带来的影响是多方面的，TC频数对上层热含量(heat content)的响应较明显，而SST不是影响TC数量变化的主要因素。伴随着海洋上层的增暖，TC的年持续时间有减少趋势，TC强度正在增强。在全球变暖背景下，TC活动给西北太平洋沿岸国家带来的潜在威胁极有可能加剧。 |
| 关键词: 西北太平洋 南海 热带气旋 海洋上层热状态 气候变化 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20161017001 |
| 分类号:P721 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学“东海黑潮区温、盐、流、海面高度多尺度变化过程及其机理研究”(编号：41340045)；上海市教委重点学科建设项目“地理学与城市环境”(编号：J50402)资助;国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Spatial and temporal variation of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone and its relationship with the thermal status of Upper Ocean in recent 30 years |
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CHEN Zhiwei1, KANG Jiancheng1, GU Chenglin2, Tang Ming3
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1.Shanghai Normal University Department of Geography 、Urban Ecology and Environment Research Center;2.Shanghai Normal University Department of Geography 、Urban Ecology and Environment Research Center Jiamusi University Department of Resources and Environment, Faculty of Science;3.JiuJiang University Poyang Lake Eco-economy Research Center
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| Abstract: |
| Utilizing The NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis data and the NODC upper-ocean heat content data and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1982–2014. Spatial and temporal characteristics of northwest pacific（0°-30°N，105°-155°E）tropical cyclone activity are analyzed. Researching the relationship between tropical cyclone and the thermal structure of Upper Ocean. The results indicate that: The frequency of tropical cyclone is evident interannual variability. 1982-1992 and 2003-2014 are Low-frequency years, and 1993-2002 are High- frequency years. From 1982-2014, the frequency characteristics of cyclone is slow increase - rapid increase – decrease. During the last 15 years (2000-2014), the number of tropical cyclones shows a clear downward trend. Tropical cyclone has three distinct birthplace: Birthplace 1（10°-22°N，110°-120°E）, Birthplace 2（8°-20°N，125°-145°E）, Birthplace 2（5°-20°N，145°-155°E）.The frequency of TC in birthplace 1 and birthplace 2 rises slowly, while the frequency of TC in birthplace 3 reduces significantly. The influence of changes in the thermal state of the upper ocean to the TC is multifaceted TC frequency response to the upper heat content more obvious. The SST is not the key factor affecting the TC frequency. With the warming of the upper ocean, the duration of TC has a decreasing trend, while TC intensity is increasing. In the context of global warming, the potential threat posed by TC activities to the Pacific Northwest countries is likely to intensify. |
| Key words: Northwestern Pacific The South China Sea Tropical cyclone the thermal state of Upper Ocean Climate change |