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引用本文:宋泽明,宁凌.我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化研究——基于Logistic模型的实证分析[J].海洋科学,2021,45(8):21-33.
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我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化研究——基于Logistic模型的实证分析
宋泽明1,2, 宁凌2
1.广东工业大学管理学院, 广东 广州 510520;2.广东沿海经济带发展研究院 广东海洋大学, 广东 湛江 524088
摘要:
随着我国各项海洋事业和活动有序推进,实现海洋资源、环境、经济协调可持续,对海洋高质量发展具有重要意义。从资源、环境和经济3个层面构建我国海洋复合系统,运用熵权TOPSIS方法进行测算,通过建立Logistic模型,对我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化过程进行拟合分析和趋势预测。得到相关研究结论:海洋资源环境经济复合系统是基于海洋资源、环境、经济相互作用、相互制约而形成的,其系统演化过程受到经济增长机制和生态平衡机制的影响;海洋资源环境经济复合系统及其子系统的演化规律符合Logistic法则,海洋资源子系统最大演化度高于海洋环境、经济子系统;海洋资源环境经济复合系统及海洋资源、经济子系统演化度的增长率较大,正处于成熟阶段,而海洋环境子系统演化度达到饱和状态,正处于衰退阶段。基于上述研究结论,提出有效措施建议。
关键词:  海洋资源环境经济复合系统  演化  Logistic模型
DOI:10.11759/hykx20200625001
分类号:F124.5;F205
基金项目:2019年广东省自然科学基金项目(2019A1515011886);2019年广东省科技计划项目(2019B101003022);2019年广东大学生科技创新培育专项资金项目(pdjh2019a0229)
Evolution of China's marine resources, environmental, and economic complex system—an empirical analysis based on the logistic model
SONG Ze-ming1,2, NING Ling2
1.School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520, China;2.Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute, Zhanjiang 524088, China
Abstract:
With the orderly progress of various marine undertakings and activities in China, the coordinated and sustainable development of marine resources, environment, and economy is of great significance to high-quality marine development. China's marine composite system is constructed from those three disciplines. Entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to calculate, and the logistic model was established to conduct fitting analysis and trend prediction on the evolution process of the composite system of marine resources, environment, and economy. The relevant research conclusions are as follows:the marine resources/environment/economy complex system is formed based on the interaction and mutual restriction of those three fields, and their evolutionary process is influenced by the mechanism of economic growth and ecological balance. The evolution of the composite system and its subsystems conforms to the logistic law, and the maximum evolutionary degree of the marine resources subsystem is higher than those of the environmental and economic subsystems. The marine resources/environment/economy complex system and the resources/economy subsystem show large growth rates and are in the mature stages, whereas the environment subsystem has reached a state of saturation and decline. Based on the above research conclusions, effective measures are proposed.
Key words:  marine resources and environmental economic complex system  evolution  Logistic model
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