| 摘要: |
| 为了研究第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中新提出的“情景模式比较计划”(ScenarioMIP)下中国近海气象要素的变化情况, 本文选取了其中6个海气耦合模型, 对其模拟的风速、气温、降水进行评估与预测。评估结果表明选取的模式对中国近海模拟效果整体都不错, 但在菲律宾群岛附近模拟结果相对欠佳。模型平均预估结果表明未来21世纪中叶4个情景下渤黄海风速夏季增加、冬季减弱; 至21世纪末, 研究海域夏季15°N以北(南)风速主要呈增加(减小)的趋势, 冬季25°N以北(南)风速主要呈减小(增加)的趋势。4个未来情景下的中国近海气温都将持续升高, 高纬区域增幅大于低纬。可持续发展情景(SSP1-2.6)能有效减缓升温, 其他放任温室气体大量排放的情景(如SSP5-8.5), 则会加剧升温。未来中国近海降水变化总体上呈增加趋势, 渤黄海与东海降水增幅在SSP5-8.5情景下最大, 世纪末分别增加约15.87%与5.61%; 南海降水增幅在SSP2-4.5情景下最大, 世纪末增加约4.84%。 |
| 关键词: CMIP6 ScenarioMIP 中国近海 气象要素评估 未来预测 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20220118001 |
| 分类号:P731 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2106204) |
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| Evaluation and prediction of coastal meteorological elements in China by the CMIP6 model |
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TANG Yin1, MAO Xin-yan1, QIAN Chuang1, TIAN Xiao-lu1, WANG Ya-nan1, JIANG Wen-sheng2
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1.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;2.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
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| Abstract: |
| To study the future meteorological element changes in the China coastal ocean under ScenarioMIP proposed by the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP6), this paper selected six coupled models of sea and air to evaluate and forecast the simulated wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. The evaluation results show that the simulation effect of each mode is relatively accurate in general but relatively poor near the Philippines. Then, based on the multimodel average (MME) prediction results, in the middle of the 21st century, the variation in wind speed in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea (BYS) increased in summer and decreased in winter under four scenarios. By the end of the 21st century, the wind speed north (south) of 15°N in summer mainly showed an increasing (decreasing) trend, and the wind speed north (south) of 25°N in winter mainly showed a decreasing (increasing) trend. In all four scenarios, the future temperature of China's coastal ocean continued to rise, particularly in the high latitude region. Sustainable development scenarios (SSP1-2.6) can effectively mitigate temperature increases, while scenarios that allow large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions (such as SSP5-8.5) exacerbate temperature increases. In the future, the precipitation in the China coastal ocean will generally increase. BYS and the East China Sea (ECS) had the largest increase in precipitation under SSP5-8.5, increasing by approximately 15.87% and 5.61%, respectively, at the end of the century. The South China Sea (SCS) had the largest increase in precipitation under SSP2-4.5, increasing by approximately 4.84% at the end of the century. |
| Key words: CMIP6 scenarioMIP China coastal ocean meteorological element assessment future projection |
