| 摘要: |
| 本文对1980-2019年上海近岸海域发生的164次赤潮灾害事件进行统计和分析，并采用Spearman秩相关系数法对40年间上海近岸海域赤潮与海表温度变化之间的关联性进行研究。结果表明，上海近岸海域赤潮的发生具有明显的时间和区域特征：1980年代-2010年代，上海近岸海域赤潮发生次数呈现先增加后减少的趋势，年均赤潮面积呈波动式减小-增大-减小趋势；赤潮发生时间主要集中在4-8月，且高发区域主要位于嵊泗列岛附近海域。引发赤潮的生物种类具有年代际演变规律，夜光藻（Noctiluca scintillans）逐渐被中肋骨条藻（Skeletonema costatum）和东海原甲藻（Prorocentrum donghaiense）所取代，同时还不断有新的赤潮藻种出现。相关性分析结果表明，上海近岸海域赤潮发生次数与海温异常和海温暖异常天数均呈显著的正相关关系，即区域平均海表温度越高赤潮发生次数越多。本研究通过对上海近岸海域赤潮灾害的多年统计分析，结合赤潮发生与海温增暖的相关性，清晰地描述了该海域赤潮的时空变化特征，为上海赤潮预警预报和防灾减灾工作提供了一定的参考。 |
| 关键词: 赤潮 时空特征 上海海域 海表温度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:上海市海洋局科研项目 |
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| Characteristics of Red Tide in Shanghai Coastal Waters and Its Possible Response to Sea Surface Warming |
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Gao Yuexin, Zheng Xiaoqin, Guan Qinle, Wang Guansuo
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East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center,MNR
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| Abstract: |
| In this study, 164 red tide events occurred in Shanghai coastal waters from 1980 to 2019 were comprehensively analyzed by using statistical method, and the correlation between red tide occurrences and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) was also estimated by Spearman rank non-parametric correlation analysis. The results indicate that the frequency of red tides increased and then decreased, and the annual average red tide area showed a fluctuating trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing. The red tides mainly occurred from April to August, and the highest incidence area was the waters around Shengsi Islands. Species of organisms causing red tides changed decadally, with Noctiluca scintillans being replaced by Skeletonema costatum and Prorocentrum donghaiense gradually, and new red tide species have emerged continuously in the last two decades. The Spearman’s rank correlation demonstrated the significant positive correlations between the frequency of red tides and temperature parameters (i.e., SSTA and the days of positive SSTA), implying that the warmer sea waters, the higher the number of red tide occurrences. This study clearly described the red tide characteristics in Shanghai coastal waters, and provided a scientific reference for the early warning and the disaster prevention of red tides in Shanghai coastal waters. |
| Key words: red tide spatial-temporal characteristics Shanghai coastal waters sea surface temperature |