| 摘要: |
| 海洋表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)是海洋中最重要的物理参数之一。它的变化会对海洋生态系统和人类社会产生重要的影响。近40 a远洋渔业主要作业海域在太平洋、大西洋和印度洋均有分布,海洋表面温度的异常变化必然影响到在三大洋的远洋渔业主要作业海域。基于美国国家海洋大气管理局的最优插值月平均海表温度(Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature,NOAA OISST)数据(1982年—2021年)与澳大利亚气象局发布的1982年—2021年的南方涛动指数(Southern Oscillation Index,SOI),分别对远洋渔业主要作业海域1982年—2021年的海表温度异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的时间序列进行年纪变动分析,使用傅里叶变换计算时间序列的显著变动周期,并对SSTA与SOI进行了相关性分析,并采用STL (Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess,STL)分解査看各洋区海温变化的季节性强度和趋势。结果表明,1982年—2021年,远洋渔业主要作业海域的海表温度异常总体的波动范围在-0.39℃~0.379℃,波动周期为3—4 a。与同期的SOI时间序列相比,从年际尺度上看,两者呈反相位波动。经过显著性分析发现,年平均海表温度异常值与SOI时间序列在0.05显著水平上呈负相关,相关指数为0.351。这一结果与1982年—2011年远洋渔业主要作业海域海表温度异常年际变化分析结果进行对比发现,远洋渔业主要作业海域平均SSTA呈持续上升趋势,且从各渔场的SSTA趋势曲线来看各渔场均呈上升趋势;太平洋东部和太平洋东南部渔场的趋势从下降转变为上升,进一步说明了渔场SSTA变动受ENSO事件的影响。通过去趋势后对SSTA时间序列与SOI时间序列进行相关性分析,发现太平洋东部、太平洋西北部、大西洋中部和印度洋东部具有显著的相关性,相关系数分别为-0.874、0.395、0.334和-0.380,而其他渔场的SSTA与SOI无显著相关性;季节性强度排序显示,太平洋西北部和东印度洋的季节性强度最高,西太平洋最低;与前30 a的均值与整体均值标准差的对比分析表明,近10 a里远洋渔业主要作业海域海表温度异常的均值呈现明显上升趋势,且具有更大的温度波动范围和变化不稳定性,这表明近10 a气候变化对海洋的影响更为显著。 |
| 关键词: 远洋渔业 海表温度 海表温度异常 南方涛动指数 STL分解 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20240508001 |
| 分类号:S931.3 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFD2401303);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(东海水产研究所2022ZD0402) |
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| Analysis of interannual changes in sea surface temperature anomalies in the main operating areas of pelagic fishery over the past 40 years |
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LAI Qixiang1,2, ZHOU Weifeng1, CUI Xuesen1, SHI Yongchuang1
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1.East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200090, China;2.Zhejiang Ocean University School of Information Engineering, Zhoushan 316022, China
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| Abstract: |
| Sea surface temperature (SST) is a crucial oceanic parameter affecting marine ecosystems and human society. Over the past 40 years, pelagic fisheries have operated mainly in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, where SST anomalies inevitably affect these areas. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Optimum Interpolated Monthly Mean Sea Surface Temperature data (1982–2021) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 1982–2021, we analyzed SST anomalies in key pelagic fisheries. The time series of SST anomalies from 1982 to 2021 were analyzed using Fourier transform to identify significant changes in the time series. The correlation between the SST anomalies and the SOI was examined, and Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess(STL) decomposition was applied to investigate the seasonal intensity and trends of SST changes across different oceanic regions. The analysis of SST anomalies from 1982 to 2021 in offshore fisheries shows fluctuations between −0.39℃ and 0.37℃, with a 3–4-year cycle. Compared with the SOI time series over the same period, they fluctuated in the inverse phase on an interannual scale. After the significance analysis, it was found that SST anomalies inversely correlated with the SOI on an interannual scale, with a significant negative correlation (0.351) at a significant level of 0.05. Comparing this result with the analysis of interannual SST anomalies from 1982 to 2011 reveals a sustained increasing trend in the average SST anomalies across the main pelagic fisheries. The trend curves for various fisheries indicate a continuous rise in average SSTA. The SSTA trend curves indicate an increasing trend across all fishing grounds. The eastern Pacific Ocean and the southeastern Pacific Ocean have changed from decreasing to increasing trends, highlighting the influence of ENSO events. Detrended correlation analysis reveals significant correlations between SST anomalies and SOI in the eastern Pacific, northwestern Pacific, mid-Atlantic, and eastern Indian Oceans, with coefficients of −0.874, 0.395, 0.334, and −0.380, respectively. No significant correlation was found in other fishing grounds. Seasonal intensity is highest in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and East Indian Ocean and lowest in the West Pacific Ocean. A comparative analysis with the mean and standard deviation of the past 30 years shows a significant upward trend in SST anomalies in pelagic fisheries over the past 10 years. This period also exhibits greater temperature fluctuations and instability, indicating the more pronounced impact of climate change on the oceans. |
| Key words: Pelagic fishery Sea Surface Temperature Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Southern Oscillation Index Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess decomposition |
