| 摘要: |
| 油田所处滩浅海区域因紧邻海岸线及丰富的生物多样性而显得脆弱和敏感, 溢油事故对该区域的影响巨大。开展油田滩浅海区域溢油应急能力评估对发掘油田在应对溢油事故方面的短板至关重要。针对目前的溢油应急能力评估研究主要面向海上溢油事件, 缺乏对油田所在滩海区域的针对性问题, 从静态指标评估、动态指标评估和溢油风险分析3方面出发, 设计了一个面向滩浅海区域的油田溢油应急能力综合评估系统。静态指标评估通过应急能力与影响因素之间的关系表达式实现定量分析。动态指标评估采用模糊认知映射法求解目标层指标的权重向量, 利用层次分析法求解一级指标的权重向量并进行随机一致性校验, 然后使用模糊综合评价法实现。溢油风险分析通过构建溢油风险因素数据驱动的BP神经网络溢油风险分析模型实现。最后, 基于胜利油田部分滩浅海区域数据进行评估实验, 结果表明该系统考虑了滩浅海区域的特殊性, 能够实现油田滩浅海区域的溢油应急能力有效评估, 可为滩浅海区域溢油应急管理体系的构建和完善提供更为准确的科学依据和技术支持。 |
| 关键词: 滩浅海|溢油|应急能力评估|模糊综合评价法|溢油风险分析 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20241226002 |
| 分类号:TP39 |
| 基金项目:中国石化股份公司研究项目(322117);中国石油大学(华东)研究生教学改革项目(YJG2023041) |
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| An oil spill emergency response capability evaluation system for beaches and shallow areas |
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YAO Kan1, FAN Dongxue1, ZHANG Yang1, HAN Kun1, DU Jiayuan1, LYU Xinrong2
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1.Technical Testing Center of Sinopec Shengli Oil Fields Branch, Dongying 257000, China;2.College of Oceanography and Space Informatics, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China
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| Abstract: |
| The beach and shallow areas of an oilfield are fragile and sensitive because of their rich biodiversity and proximity to the coastline. Oil spill accidents have a great impact on such areas. It is, therefore, crucial to accurately evaluate oil spill emergency response capabilities in these locations to discover any shortcomings in dealing with oil spill accidents. However, current oil spill emergency capability evaluation mainly focuses on offshore oil spill events and lacks pertinence for beaches and shallow areas. This study, therefore, designed a comprehensive evaluation system for oil spill emergency capabilities in these areas based on static index evaluation, dynamic index evaluation, and oil spill risk analysis. Static index evaluation realized quantitative analysis through the relationship expression between emergency capabilities and influencing factors. Dynamic index evaluation used the fuzzy cognitive mapping method to solve the weight vector of the target layer index. This process began with an analytic hierarchy process to solve the weight vector of the first-level index, followed by a random consistency check, before realizing the map through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The oil spill risk analysis was then realized by creating a back propagation neural network oil spill risk analysis model based on relevant factor data. Finally, the evaluation experiment was carried out based on the data from beaches and shallow areas in the Shengli Oilfield. The results demonstrated that the new design accounted for the particularity of beach and shallow areas and could effectively evaluate the oil spill emergency capacity of such areas, which provided a more accurate, scientific basis and technical support for the construction and perfection of an appropriate oil spill emergency management system. |
| Key words: beaches and shallow areas|oil spills|emergency response capability assessment|fuzzy comprehensive evaluation|oil spill risk analysis |
