| 摘要: |
| 基于2010—2021年沿海11省份面板数据,本文探究了我国海洋经济高质量发展的时序变化和空间格局,并对其未来演变趋势进行预测。研究发现:1)全国海洋经济高质量发展优势区集中在长江三角洲、珠江三角洲及环渤海经济区。其中,辽宁、山东、浙江、福建、广东维持高质量循环;天津、河北、广西处于低质量循环;海南实现跨越式发展,从瘦狗型到幼童型,再到明星型与金牛型之间转变。2)2010—2021年全国海洋经济高质量发展水平省际差异先增后减,高水平省份数量显著增加,低水平省份也得到提升,均衡性加强。3)全国海洋经济高质量发展呈现南北均衡态势,南方以浙江、福建、广东为明星区块,北方靠山东高水平抗衡。4)未来全国海洋经济高质量发展态势维持原有状态的概率较高,存在向低水平和高水平收敛的“俱乐部收敛”现象。 |
| 关键词: 竞争态 海洋经济高质量发展 时空演变 趋势预测 马尔科夫链 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20250112001 |
| 分类号:F201 |
| 基金项目:2024 浙江文化研究工程项目“习近平新时代海洋强国重要论述在浙江探索与实践”(24WH02-5Z) |
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| Pattern evolution and trend prediction of high-quality development of China’s marine economy from the competitive state perspective |
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HE Yixiong1,2,3, CHEN Kewei1, LI Xiaohu1
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1.College of Economics & Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China;2.Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519000, China;3.Zhejiang Marine Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315000, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces from 2010 to 2021, this study explores the temporal changes and spatial patterns of high-quality development of China’s marine economy using competitive state models and kernel density analysis. In addition, this study constructs traditional and spatial Markov probability transition matrices to predict long-term evolution trends. The research findings are as follows: (1) Regions with advantages in high-quality marine economic development are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Bohai Rim Economic Zone. Among them, Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong maintain high-quality cycles; Tianjin, Hebei, and Guangxi are in low-quality cycles; and Hainan has achieved leapfrog development, transitioning from a thin dog to a young child type and then to a star and Taurus type. (2) From 2010 to 2021, interprovincial differences in the high-quality development level of the national marine economy initially increased and then decreased. The number of high-level provinces has significantly increased, and the performance of low-level provinces has also improved, leading to enhanced balance. (3) High-quality development of the national marine economy presents a balanced trend between the north and south. The south is led by Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, whereas the north is supported by Shandong’s high-level performance. (4) The probability of maintaining the original state of high-quality development of the national marine economy in the future is high, with the phenomenon of “club convergence”—tending toward convergence at low and high development levels. |
| Key words: competitive state high-quality marine economic development spatiotemporal evolution trend prediction Markov chain |
