| 摘要: |
| 随着我国各项海洋事业和活动有序推进，实现海洋资源、环境、经济协调可持续，对海洋高质量发展具有重要意义。从资源、环境和经济三个层面构建我国海洋复合系统，运用熵权TOPSIS方法进行测算，通过建立Logistic模型，对我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化过程进行拟合分析和趋势预测。研究结果表明：海洋资源环境经济复合系统是基于海洋资源、环境、经济相互作用、相互制约而形成的，其系统演化过程受到经济增长机制和生态平衡机制的影响；海洋资源环境经济复合系统及其子系统的演化规律符合Logistic法则，海洋资源子系统最大演化度高于海洋环境、经济子系统；海洋资源环境经济复合系统及海洋资源、经济子系统演化度的增长率较大，正处于成熟阶段，而海洋环境子系统演化度达到饱和状态，正处于衰退阶段。基于上述研究结论，提出有效措施建议。 |
| 关键词: 海洋资源环境经济复合系统 演化 Logistic模型 |
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| 基金项目:2019年广东省自然科学基金项目（2019A1515011886）；2019年广东省科技计划项目（2019B101003022）；2019年广东大学生科技创新培育专项资金项目（pdjh2019a0229）。 |
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| A study on the evolution of China's marine resource and environmental economic complex system -- an empirical analysis based on Logistic model |
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Song Ze-ming1, NING Ling2
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1.Guangdong Ocean University;2.Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| With the orderly progress of various marine undertakings and activities in China, the coordinated and sustainable development of marine resources, environment and economy is of great significance to high-quality marine development. China's marine composite system was constructed from three levels of resources, environment and economy. Entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to calculate and Logistic model was established to conduct fitting analysis and trend prediction on the evolution process of China's marine resources, environment and economy composite system. The results show that the marine resources, environment and economy complex system is formed based on the interaction and mutual restriction of marine resources, environment and economy, and its system evolution process is influenced by the mechanism of economic growth and ecological balance. The evolution law of the marine resources, environment and economy composite system and its subsystem conforms to the Logistic law, and the maximum evolution degree of the marine resources subsystem is higher than that of the marine environment and economy subsystem. The marine resources, environment and economy complex system and the marine resources and economy subsystem have a large growth rate and are in the mature stage, while the marine environment subsystem has reached the saturation state and is in the decline stage. Based on the above research conclusions, effective measures are proposed. |
| Key words: marine resources and environmental economic complex system evolution Logistic model |