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| 区域海洋减灾能力评估指标体系构建与权重量化 |
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栗 健1,2, 方伟华1,2, 国志兴3, 贾慧聪4, 杨 洋1,2, 赵明利5, 管琴乐6, 黎 舸7, 李 仪8, 蔡大浩9
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1.北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;2.北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;3.国家海洋局海洋减灾中心;4.中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所/数字地球重点实验室;5.国家海洋局南海规划与环境研究院;6.国家海洋局东海预报中心;7.国家海洋局北海预报中心;8.民政部国家减灾中心;9.国家海洋信息中心
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| 摘要: |
| 为有效开展防灾减灾, 需要充分了解区域海洋减灾能力现状, 从而科学确定未来减灾能力建设的优先领域及重点工程。首先梳理了能力评估与灾害管理阶段、能力建设优先领域、能力评估对象与建设主体等要素之间的关系, 以及评估指标体系共性设计与区域个性的关系; 其次, 通过组织部门及地方的相关减灾机构与专家开展多方参与式讨论, 综合了海洋、水文、气象、民政、应急、教育及综合减灾等多个领域专家的减灾经验, 构建了区域海洋减灾能力评估三级指标体系, 包括6 个一级指标、21 个二级指标及136 个三级指标; 然后, 基于专家问卷(有效问卷69 份)及层次分析(AHP)方法, 量化了三级指标体系中各指标的权重。区域海洋减灾能力评估三级指标体系及指标权重成果已在相关市县开展了评估试点应用, 为未来在全国范围开展区域海洋减灾能力评估奠定了良好基础。 |
| 关键词: 减灾能力 评价指标体系 海洋灾害 层次分析法 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20160524001 |
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| 基金项目:区域海洋减灾能力综合评估(2015); 海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305020) |
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| Establishment and weight quantification of indicator system for marine disaster coping capacity assessment |
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LI Jian,FANG Wei-hua,GUO Zhi-xing,JIA Hui-cong,YANG Yang,ZHAO Ming-li,GUAN Qin-le,LI Ge,LI Yi,CAI Da-hao
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| Abstract: |
| Marine disasters have been causing enormous economic and human loss to the coastal areas of China. Understanding and quantification of disaster risk reduction (DRR) capacity is of great significance for the governments to determine DRR-priority areas and key projects at both local and national levels. There are very few comprehensive studies on DRR capacity quantification methods or applications for marine disasters. In this article, first, the relationship between DRR capacity and other components of disaster management, including capacity needs, DRR cost and benefit, priority areas, and capacity building entities, is discussed. Second, a three-hierarchy indicator system, which comprises six first hierarchy indicators, 21 second hierarchy indicators, and 136 third hierarchy indicators, is proposed through multiple-round discussion with multiple stakeholders, including DRR government departments, research institutes, and independent experts from China. Finally, the weights of indicators are quantified on the basis of valid questionnaires from 69 experts by using analytic hierarchy process method. Based on the indicator system and weights developed in this study, three cities and 11 counties of China have successfully assessed their DRR capacities. The results and experiences presented in this article are of great value to future DRR capacity assessment promotion and practice in all coastal counties of China. |
| Key words: coping capacity indicator system for assessment marine disaster analytic hierarchy process |