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中国沿岸相对海面变化的本征分析和预测
左军成, 陈宗镛, 周天华
青岛海洋大学海洋学系青岛 266003

摘要:

利用经验正交函数的方法，将平均海面分解为正交时、空函数积的代数和。采用起主导作用的正交函数进行组合，得到修正的海平面变化值，它消除了某些随机的影响。去掉平均海面主要时间本征函数中的主要周期部分，求得剩余部分的变化率，乘以空间本征函数可得各站平均海面的变化速率。对未来的时间本征函数作出预报，便可得到本来的平均海面预报值。

关键词: 相对平均海面平均海面变化率时间本征函数空间本征函数

DOI：

分类号:

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目，9488007号和中国科学院资助项目，87－45－03号

EIGENANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF RELATIVE SEALEVEL CHANGES ALONG THE CHINA COAST

Zuo Juncheng, Chen Zongyong, Zhou Tianhua

Oceanography Department. Ocean University of Qingdao, Qingdao 266003

Abstract:

The empirical orthogonal function method is used to decompose the annual mean relative sea level into the algebraic sum of the product of the spatial orthogonal functions and the temporal eigenfunctions. The revised value of the sea level value can be obtained by recomposing the principal eigenfunctions, i.e.,

(For the equations please see the PDF file.)

during which some random effects are removed. Every temporal eigenfunction can be decomposed into the algebraic sum of the linear variation part and the periodic variation part:

(For the equations please see the PDF file.)

After removing the principal periodic part from the principal temporal eigenfungtions, the residual part variation rates can be obtained for multiplication with every principal spatial function to the variation rates of relative sea level. The future sea level can be predicted.

Key words: Relative mean sea level, Rates of mean sea level, Temporal eigenfunction, Spatial eigenfunction

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