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大鹏湾夜光藻种群密度变化率动态模型研究
黄伟建, 齐雨藻, 朱从举, 骆育敏
暨南大学水生生物研究所 广州510632
摘要:
以1990年3月30日-1990年6月10日期间在大鹏湾每隔2d采样一次的数据为基础，另参考黄伟建等（1992，1993，1995）、Huang等（1992）和齐雨藻等（1991）的研究结果，研究建立大鹏湾夜光藻种群密度变化率动态模型。结果表明，夜光藻种群密度变化率与其自身后期密度、可溶性无机磷浓度、温度、可溶性无机氮浓度有先以变分方式对夜光藻种群密度变化率动态模型进行辨识，从而建立3个站位6个层次的变化率模型（模型公式详见文内），该模型较为准确地拟合其变化率，为预测夜光藻赤潮发生提供依据。
关键词:  夜光藻  大鹏湾  变化率  模型  种群密度
DOI：
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金!9389008
MODEL ON CHANGE RATIO OF THE POPULATION DENSITIES DYNAMICS OF NOCILUCA SCINTILLANS (Ehr.) MACARTNEY IN DAPENG BAY, SOUTH CHINA SEA
Huang Weijian, Qi Yuzao, Zhu Congiu, Luo Yumin
Institute of Hydrobiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632
Abstract:
Change ratio models were derived to analyze the population dynamics of Noctiluca scintillans (Ehr.) Macarteey in Dapeng Bay. Data used were based on samples taken fortnightly from 30 March to 10 June 1990. The authors’’ results in previous study on the early stage N. scintillans change ratio of density, temperature, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN, including NO3--N and NO2--N) and dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) are compared with the respective change ratios of later stage N. scintillans. The calculus of variations were used to derive the following change ratio models of the N. scintillans population density dynamics:

(For the equations please see the PDF file.) The fitting between the prediction and field data is quite accurate. The results provide scientific basis for controlling red tide of N. scintillans.
Key words:  N. scintillans, Dapeng Bay, Change ratio, Model, Population densities
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