| 摘要: |
| 以1959～2012年的年平均气温为数据源, 用Mann-Kendall(M-K)秩次相关法对山东半岛滨海(以威海、成山头和海阳气象站平均值为代表) 和内陆(以济南、沂源和兖州气象站平均值为代表) 区的气温变化进行了比较分析。研究结果表明, 1973～2012年以来滨海和内陆区的年平均气温变化总体呈增加的趋势, 但低于同期全球增温幅度。从2个区域的比较来看, 滨海区增温变化高于内陆区0.17℃。但是,M-K 趋势检验表明, 滨海区年平均气温波动幅度小于内陆区。不同分析时间序列长短对结果的影响极大,随分析时间序列(尺度) 增加, 变化趋势(β) 无规律, 但正态分布统计量(Zc) 随分析时间序列增加而增加。本文对相同气候类型下滨海和内陆气温变化的差异性进行探讨, 这对于正确认识和评估在全球升温背景下, 滨海和内陆区域的气候变化特点和其对环境和社会经济发展的影响都具有重要的意义。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 累加效应 Mann-Kendall 检验 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20130705001 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41271193); 鲁东大学学科建设项目(LDU201012) |
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| Comparative analysis of air temperature changes between coastal and inland areas of the Shandong Peninsula from 1972 to 2012 |
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, the Rank Correlation methods (Mann-Kendall test, M-K test) were used to analyze and compare the temperature variation between coastal (Weihai, Chengshantou and Haiyang meteorological stations were chosen as a representative) and inland (Jinan, Yiyuan and Yanzhou were chosen as a representative) areas based on annual mean data of air temperature from 1959 to 2012 in the Shandong Peninsula. The results showed that the annual mean air temperature increased from 1974 to 2012 both in the coastal and inland area of the peninsular, and they were lower than global level. The change of coast temperature was higher than which of inland by 0.17℃. Further, M-K test analysis indicated that fluctuation range of the coast temperature was lower than that of the inland. In addition, our findings showed that different temporal series (scales) had obviously influence on check result, β values changed irregular, and Zc values increased with the temporal series increase, respectively. |
| Key words: climate change accumulative impact Mann-Kendall M-K test |
