| 引用本文: | 吴亚楠,卢梦瑶,于兴晨,王志勇,杨鉴宇,王磊.基于ECO-ABM模型的互花米草种子漂移扩散数值模拟研究[J].海洋科学,2025,49(5):24-33. |
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| 基于ECO-ABM模型的互花米草种子漂移扩散数值模拟研究 |
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吴亚楠1, 卢梦瑶1, 于兴晨2, 王志勇3,4, 杨鉴宇1, 王磊3,4
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1.国家海洋技术中心, 天津 300112;2.中国海洋大学, 山东 青岛 266100;3.自然资源部北海预报减灾中心, 山东 青岛 266061;4.山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室, 山东 青岛 266061
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| 摘要: |
| 本文利用MIKE21二维水动力模型重构水动力场, 综合考虑互花米草种子物理特性参数, 采用代理建模技术(Agent Based Modelling, ABM)构建表征互花米草种子运动特征的模型(ECO-ABM), 以山东滨州套尔河河口至潮河河口之间互花米草分布海域为研究对象开展案例实证, 研究该海域12个互花米草分布区块种子远距离扩散能力和各区块间相互迁移关系。经实测数据验证, 模拟潮位、流速和流向平均绝对误差最大分别为−8.23 cm、−11.69 cm/s和−21.35°, 水动力模型可较为真实的反映水动力条件。ECO-ABM模型实证结果表明, 区块1、3、8、10内种子在启动流速为0.01~0.15 m/s时的迁出概率平均值分别为90%、70%、55%、45%, 最大迁移距离分别为38.7 km、49.4 km、32.1 km和16.8 km, 反映出潮汐潮流水动力条件、水深地形和种子自身物理特性对其漂移扩散具有重要影响; 在远距离扩散方面, 研究海域种子沿岸向东至莱州湾扩散的趋势明显, 沿岸至少存在2个潜在高风险区域; 多个区块间存在种子相互迁移关系, 尤其是区块5、8、10—12间, 从种子有性繁殖角度推测区块5和8可能为该区域互花米草暴发繁殖的源头。研究结果可为渤海湾有效防治互花米草提供科学参考, 研究方法具有区域拓展适用价值。 |
| 关键词: 互花米草种子 漂移扩散 Agent Based Modelling(ABM) 数值模拟 |
| DOI：10.11759/hykx20241124001 |
| 分类号:P76 |
| 基金项目:山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(202202); 国家自然科学基金项目(42276228); 中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2023-DFZD-52-02) |
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| Numerical simulation of Spartina alterniflora seed drift dispersal based on an ECO-ABM model |
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WU Yanan1, LU Mengyao1, YU Xingchen2, WANG Zhiyong3,4, YANG Jianyu1, WANG Lei3,4
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1.National Ocean Technology Center, Tianjin 300112, China;2.Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;3.North China Sea Marine Forecasting and Hazard Mitigation Center of MNR, Qingdao 266061, China;4.Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Environment and Disaster Prevention of Shandong, Qingdao 266061, China
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| Abstract: |
| This study used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, MIKE21, to reconstruct the hydrodynamic field. An ECO-ABM model was developed to characterize the movement of Spartina alterniflora seeds using agent-based modeling (ABM), which considers the physical characteristics of the seeds. An area with S. alterniflora distribution between the Tauer River and Chaohe estuaries in Binzhou, Shandong Province, China, was used as a case study region. The long-distance dispersal ability of seeds in 12 distribution blocks and the relationship between each block were assessed. The maximum average absolute errors of the simulated tide level, current velocity, and direction were −8.23 cm, −11.69 cm/s, and −21.35°, respectively. Thus, realistic hydrodynamic conditions can be provided by the hydrodynamic model. The empirical results of the ECO-ABM model showed that the average migration probabilities of seeds in blocks 1, 3, 8, and 10 were 90%, 70%, 55%, and 45% when the starting flow velocity was 0.01-0.15 m/s, and the maximum migration distances were 38.7, 49.4, 32.1, and 16.8 km, respectively. They indicated that the hydrodynamic conditions, water depth topography, and physical characteristics of the seeds markedly affected their drift and diffusion. In terms of long-distance dispersal, no obvious trend in seed dispersal was observed along the coast of the study area east of Laizhou Bay. At least two potential high-risk areas were identified along the coast. Additionally, a seed migration relationship between multiple blocks was discovered, especially between blocks 5, 8, and 10-12. From the perspective of sexual reproduction, it was speculated that blocks 5 and 8 might be the source for S. alterniflora outbreak and reproduction in this area. These results provide a scientific reference for the effective control of S. alterniflora in Bohai Bay, and the research method has a regional expansion value. |
| Key words: Spartina alterniflora seed drift dispersal Agent Based Modelling(ABM) numerical simulation |
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